TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12471926
Played Aug 23Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171181113119––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 81 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 16–18 Oleksandr Storozhenko Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 16 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:44What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-18 in 34
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1634 vs Storozhenko 1556
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Storozhenko 40%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Storozhenko 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.83 / Storozhenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12471926
Kovalchuk1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Storozhenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayStorozhenko5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk60%3 of 5
AwayStorozhenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk6Storozhenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S5Kovalchuk3Storozhenko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukStorozhenkoK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.144.3+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 820 vs 220 / 42348.2%52%395 / 820 vs 220 / 423Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.83/Storozhenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk—10151291O. Storozhenko—121314113
WAug 7 · 13:25V. Kovalchuk—3111111113O. Storozhenko—11137782
WAug 5 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk—11121110113O. Storozhenko—91471212
WJul 31 · 12:25V. Kovalchuk—111211113O. Storozhenko—614761
WJul 29 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk—111110113O. Storozhenko—691261
LJul 28 · 15:05V. Kovalchuk—114981O. Storozhenko—81111113
LJul 27 · 23:00V. Kovalchuk—111231182O. Storozhenko—814117113
LJul 26 · 01:45V. Kovalchuk—51111962O. Storozhenko—115411113
WJul 22 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk—813113113O. Storozhenko—111181152
LJul 21 · 15:05V. Kovalchuk—751113142O. Storozhenko—1111911163
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151WSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133LSep 4 · 13:55I. Pytsko2.3811117153O. Storozhenko1.539711131LAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660
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