TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12444545
Played Aug 17Finished
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117119811811115
Oleksii Rodin
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:15 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 63.4%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 9–4 Oleksii Rodin Oleksii Rodin has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Alieksieev
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1720 vs Rodin 1567
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Rodin 40%
Alieksieev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 80% vs Rodin 50%
Alieksieev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev +2 · Rodin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Alieksieev) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Alieksieev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.44 / Rodin 2.63
Signal prob.76% / 25%
Edge (Alieksieev)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12444545
Alieksieev1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 59 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Rodin2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 21 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAlieksieev8wins
AwayRodin2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAlieksieev100%6 of 6
AwayRodin50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alieksieev6Rodin4n = 10Alieksieev took 6 of 10
S2Alieksieev9Rodin1n = 10Alieksieev took 9 of 10
S3Alieksieev8Rodin2n = 10Alieksieev took 8 of 10
S4Alieksieev3Rodin2n = 5Alieksieev took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAlieksieevRodinA − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.130.4+8.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 199 vs 153 / 24659.8%62.2%119 / 199 vs 153 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.44/Rodin 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.5%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev—111188113O. Rodin—79111152
WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev—1111113O. Rodin—4650
WAug 16 · 01:12O. Alieksieev—51111113O. Rodin—119561
WAug 15 · 22:00O. Alieksieev—121111113O. Rodin—142961
WAug 10 · 06:05O. Alieksieev—1111113O. Rodin—9170
LAug 9 · 14:05O. Alieksieev—98111192O. Rodin—111147113
WAug 9 · 01:30O. Alieksieev—1111163O. Rodin—67140
WJul 8 · 07:35O. Alieksieev—1112113O. Rodin—91090
WJul 7 · 14:05O. Alieksieev—1211113O. Rodin—10880
LJul 6 · 22:00O. Alieksieev—1211881O. Rodin—14611113
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650LAug 16 · 03:00O. Alieksieev1.538111371Y. Vorsuliak2.3811615113
O. Rodin10
WSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111LSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650
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