TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12440571
Played Aug 16Finished
Yurii Kolos
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911511––––
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Kolos above · Oleksandr Alieksieev below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 69.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Kolos 1–2 Oleksandr Alieksieev Yurii Kolos has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolos 1512 vs Alieksieev 1736
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 224 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolos 0% vs Alieksieev 80%
Alieksieev
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolos 20% vs Alieksieev 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolos -5 · Alieksieev +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Alieksieev) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Alieksieev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolos 2.63 / Alieksieev 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 72%
Edge (Alieksieev)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12440571
Kolos2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Alieksieev1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 51 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKolos1wins
AwayAlieksieev2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolos1Alieksieev2n = 3Alieksieev took 2 of 3
S2Kolos1Alieksieev2n = 3Alieksieev took 2 of 3
S3Kolos2Alieksieev1n = 3Kolos took 2 of 3
S4Kolos1Alieksieev2n = 3Alieksieev took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKolosAlieksieevK − ABasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.048.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolosAlieksieevBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 95 vs 114 / 19247.4%59.4%45 / 95 vs 114 / 192Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevKolos 2.63/Alieksieev 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 10 · 07:35Y. Kolos—131111982O. Alieksieev—158811113
LJul 27 · 06:05Y. Kolos—391251O. Alieksieev—111110113
WJul 26 · 13:35Y. Kolos—118912113O. Alieksieev—811111082
Y. Kolos10
WSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113LSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113LAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:05M. Khomenko1.401111113Y. Kolos2.751680WAug 30 · 15:05Y. Vorsuliak1.539890Y. Kolos2.381111113WAug 30 · 14:05Y. Kolos2.00118115113O. Rodin1.7371131162WAug 30 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.6189150Y. Kolos2.201111173LAug 16 · 16:35Y. Kolos2.75411641M. Khomenko1.4011611113LAug 16 · 14:05Y. Kolos1.83711491O. Rodin1.8311611113
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650LAug 16 · 03:00O. Alieksieev1.538111371Y. Vorsuliak2.3811615113
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