TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12440748
Played Aug 16Finished
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111171311411117
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 93 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 67.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 1–1 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1730 vs Vorsuliak 1553
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Vorsuliak 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 60% vs Vorsuliak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev +2 · Vorsuliak +3
Vorsuliak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Alieksieev) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.50 / Vorsuliak 2.50
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Alieksieev)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12440748
Alieksieev1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 51 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Vorsuliak2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 105 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back26% 36 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back12% 10 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeAlieksieev1wins
AwayVorsuliak1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricAlieksieevVorsuliakA − VBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.533.5+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 191 vs 437 / 87159.2%50.2%113 / 191 vs 437 / 871Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.50/Vorsuliak 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 16 · 03:00O. Alieksieev—8111371Y. Vorsuliak—11615113
WAug 8 · 23:30O. Alieksieev—11711113Y. Vorsuliak—411451
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650LAug 16 · 03:00O. Alieksieev1.538111371Y. Vorsuliak2.3811615113
Y. Vorsuliak10
LSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111WSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132WAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 03:00O. Alieksieev1.538111371Y. Vorsuliak2.3811615113
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