TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12444891
Played Aug 17Finished
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116114––––
Maksym Khomenko
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 79.3% is still 79.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
79.3%
79.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Maksym Khomenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 79.3%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 4–4 Maksym Khomenko Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1720 vs Khomenko 1573
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Khomenko 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 70% vs Khomenko 40%
Alieksieev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev +1 · Khomenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Alieksieev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khomenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.30 / Khomenko 3.40
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Alieksieev)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12444891
Alieksieev1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 59 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Khomenko3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 71 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back31% 31 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back16% 11 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeAlieksieev4wins
AwayKhomenko4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAlieksieev100%4 of 4
AwayKhomenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alieksieev4Khomenko4n = 8split evenly
S2Alieksieev6Khomenko2n = 8Alieksieev took 6 of 8
S3Alieksieev4Khomenko4n = 8split evenly
S4Alieksieev3Khomenko1n = 4Alieksieev took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricAlieksieevKhomenkoA − KBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match34.132.0+2.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 199 vs 499 / 89459.8%55.8%119 / 199 vs 499 / 894Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.30/Khomenko 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.3%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 17 · 10:14O. Alieksieev—1011571M. Khomenko—12611113
WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev—1111113M. Khomenko—7640
WAug 16 · 13:35O. Alieksieev—1111113M. Khomenko—3470
WAug 16 · 01:00O. Alieksieev—1111113M. Khomenko—9370
LAug 10 · 10:35O. Alieksieev—81181182M. Khomenko—115119113
WAug 9 · 17:05O. Alieksieev—11412113M. Khomenko—9111041
LAug 8 · 20:30O. Alieksieev—3980M. Khomenko—1111113
LJul 25 · 20:30O. Alieksieev—61141332M. Khomenko—1181111113
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650LAug 16 · 03:00O. Alieksieev1.538111371Y. Vorsuliak2.3811615113
M. Khomenko10
LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542WAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571LAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113
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