TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044181
Played Aug 30Finished
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811911––––
Yurii Kolos
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYaroslav Vorsuliak above · Yurii Kolos below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 65.2%
59 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Vorsuliak 9–5 Yurii Kolos Yurii Kolos has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vorsuliak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Vorsuliak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorsuliak 1617 vs Kolos 1529
Vorsuliak
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorsuliak 40% vs Kolos 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorsuliak 50% vs Kolos 20%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorsuliak +1 · Kolos +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Vorsuliak) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorsuliak 1.53 / Kolos 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13044181
Vorsuliak1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 95 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it77% 68 of 88
Kolos2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 9 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorsuliak7wins
AwayKolos3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorsuliak100%6 of 6
AwayKolos75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorsuliak6Kolos4n = 10Vorsuliak took 6 of 10
S2Vorsuliak4Kolos6n = 10Kolos took 6 of 10
S3Vorsuliak6Kolos4n = 10Vorsuliak took 6 of 10
S4Vorsuliak4Kolos1n = 5Vorsuliak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorsuliakKolosV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.932.3+4.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorsuliakKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 897 vs 48 / 10250.7%47.1%455 / 897 vs 48 / 102Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakVorsuliak 1.53/Kolos 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 15:05Y. Vorsuliak—9890Y. Kolos—1111113
WAug 16 · 13:05Y. Vorsuliak—1211113Y. Kolos—10860
WJul 19 · 19:05Y. Vorsuliak—1061111113Y. Kolos—12116732
WJun 21 · 14:05Y. Vorsuliak—11212113Y. Kolos—9111021
WJun 14 · 19:05Y. Vorsuliak—119911113Y. Kolos—51111792
LJun 8 · 04:35Y. Vorsuliak—10580Y. Kolos—1211113
WJun 7 · 19:05Y. Vorsuliak—1111113Y. Kolos—8380
WJun 7 · 17:10Y. Vorsuliak—1111113Y. Kolos—6950
WFeb 6 · 06:05Y. Vorsuliak—111113113Y. Kolos—491581
LFeb 5 · 14:35Y. Vorsuliak—1091181Y. Kolos—12119113
Y. Vorsuliak10
LSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111WSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113WSep 4 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak2.3812118113A. Romanenko1.531091171
Y. Kolos10
LSep 7 · 09:05D. Shchegelskyi1.8312311153Y. Kolos1.8310118131WSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113LSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113LAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:05M. Khomenko1.401111113Y. Kolos2.751680WAug 30 · 14:05Y. Kolos2.00118115113O. Rodin1.7371131162WAug 30 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.6189150Y. Kolos2.201111173LAug 16 · 16:35Y. Kolos2.75411641M. Khomenko1.4011611113LAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113
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