TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044682
Played Aug 30Finished
Yurii Kolos
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117811113511116
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:57 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Kolos above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 84 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 54.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Kolos 1–2 Oleksii Rodin Yurii Kolos has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rodin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolos 1539 vs Rodin 1549
Rodin
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolos 20% vs Rodin 40%
Rodin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolos 20% vs Rodin 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolos +1 · Rodin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rodin) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolos 2.00 / Rodin 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Rodin)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13044682
Kolos2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 9 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Rodin1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 139 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it80% 94 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKolos1wins
AwayRodin2wins
Rodin leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolos1Rodin2n = 3Rodin took 2 of 3
S2Kolos2Rodin1n = 3Kolos took 2 of 3
S3Kolos2Rodin1n = 3Kolos took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKolosRodinK − RBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match32.034.3−2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolosRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 98 vs 166 / 27746.9%59.9%46 / 98 vs 166 / 277Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinKolos 2.00/Rodin 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 16 · 14:05Y. Kolos—711491O. Rodin—11611113
LAug 10 · 11:35Y. Kolos—6101151O. Rodin—11129113
WAug 2 · 17:35Y. Kolos—1111113O. Rodin—9570
Y. Kolos10
LSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113LSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113LAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:05M. Khomenko1.401111113Y. Kolos2.751680WAug 30 · 15:05Y. Vorsuliak1.539890Y. Kolos2.381111113WAug 30 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.6189150Y. Kolos2.201111173LAug 16 · 16:35Y. Kolos2.75411641M. Khomenko1.4011611113LAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113LAug 16 · 14:05Y. Kolos1.83711491O. Rodin1.8311611113LAug 16 · 13:05Y. Kolos2.2010860Y. Vorsuliak1.611211113
O. Rodin10
LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793WSep 3 · 19:05O. Rodin2.1011116113A. Romanenko1.67661161LSep 3 · 17:05M. Loboda1.5321411113O. Rodin2.381112631WAug 16 · 14:05Y. Kolos1.83711491O. Rodin1.8311611113
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