TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384771
Played Aug 9Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411511411––––
Volodymyr Ivasiv
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Ivasiv to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Volodymyr Ivasiv below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 46 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Volodymyr Ivasiv at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 59–43 Volodymyr Ivasiv Volodymyr Ivasiv has won 43 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-43 in 102
Novak
Wrong
gap of 16 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1513 vs Ivasiv 1525
Ivasiv
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Ivasiv 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 40% vs Ivasiv 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -2 · Ivasiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ivasiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.73 / Ivasiv 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ivasiv)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #12384771
Novak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 125 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it90% 77 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it74% 93 of 125
Ivasiv2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 102 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak7wins
AwayIvasiv3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak100%5 of 5
AwayIvasiv60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak5Ivasiv5n = 10split evenly
S2Novak7Ivasiv3n = 10Novak took 7 of 10
S3Novak4Ivasiv6n = 10Ivasiv took 6 of 10
S4Novak2Ivasiv3n = 5Ivasiv took 3 of 5
S5Novak3Ivasiv0n = 3Novak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakIvasivN − IBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.5+4.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakIvasivBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 519 vs 555 / 115653.4%48%277 / 519 vs 555 / 1156Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvasivNovak 1.73/Ivasiv 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ivasiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ivasiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 02:30R. Novak—10850V. Ivasiv—1211113
LJul 27 · 11:05R. Novak—6580V. Ivasiv—1111113
WJul 26 · 14:35R. Novak—121910113V. Ivasiv—10171221
WJul 25 · 22:00R. Novak—1113113V. Ivasiv—51160
WJul 20 · 11:05R. Novak—11141012113V. Ivasiv—712121492
LJul 19 · 16:35R. Novak—10390V. Ivasiv—1211113
WJul 13 · 09:35R. Novak—1111113V. Ivasiv—8140
WJul 11 · 23:00R. Novak—11111110113V. Ivasiv—13321272
WJul 6 · 11:35R. Novak—11126113V. Ivasiv—4101191
WJul 5 · 15:05R. Novak—711119113V. Ivasiv—11841192
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481WAug 8 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak1.44911461R. Novak2.6311611113
V. Ivasiv10
WAug 10 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.63521211V. Ivasiv1.44111110113WAug 10 · 10:05O. Rodin1.674890V. Ivasiv2.101111113WAug 10 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.919811101V. Ivasiv1.8011116123WAug 10 · 06:35Y. Kolos1.441169101V. Ivasiv2.6371111123LAug 10 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.571111113V. Ivasiv2.258650LAug 9 · 19:05O. Alieksieev1.67111111113V. Ivasiv2.10913621LAug 9 · 17:35V. Ivasiv2.00116131072O. Rodin1.73511111293WAug 9 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk2.5010460V. Ivasiv1.501211113WAug 9 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.8011470V. Ivasiv1.911311113WAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092
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