TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384694
Played Aug 9Finished
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191113116112––
Volodymyr Ivasiv
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:01 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Volodymyr Ivasiv below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 74 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 60.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 1–2 Volodymyr Ivasiv Oleksandr Alieksieev has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1738 vs Ivasiv 1537
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Ivasiv 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 80% vs Ivasiv 50%
Alieksieev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev +2 · Ivasiv -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Alieksieev) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivasiv form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.67 / Ivasiv 2.10
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Alieksieev)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384694
Alieksieev1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 42 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Ivasiv2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 102 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeAlieksieev1wins
AwayIvasiv2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderIvasiv leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAlieksieev33.3%1 of 3
AwayIvasivn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alieksieev3Ivasiv0n = 3Alieksieev took 3 of 3
S2Alieksieev1Ivasiv2n = 3Ivasiv took 2 of 3
S3Alieksieev0Ivasiv3n = 3Ivasiv took 3 of 3
S4Alieksieev2Ivasiv1n = 3Alieksieev took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricAlieksieevIvasivA − IBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match39.740.0−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevIvasivBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 188 vs 557 / 115957.5%48.1%108 / 188 vs 557 / 1159Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.67/Ivasiv 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 27 · 04:35O. Alieksieev—11118113V. Ivasiv—581141
LJul 26 · 12:34O. Alieksieev—11391192V. Ivasiv—911117113
LJul 26 · 01:30O. Alieksieev—1191231V. Ivasiv—71114113
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650
V. Ivasiv10
WAug 10 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.63521211V. Ivasiv1.44111110113WAug 10 · 10:05O. Rodin1.674890V. Ivasiv2.101111113WAug 10 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.919811101V. Ivasiv1.8011116123WAug 10 · 06:35Y. Kolos1.441169101V. Ivasiv2.6371111123LAug 10 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.571111113V. Ivasiv2.258650LAug 9 · 17:35V. Ivasiv2.00116131072O. Rodin1.73511111293WAug 9 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk2.5010460V. Ivasiv1.501211113WAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113WAug 9 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.8011470V. Ivasiv1.911311113LAug 9 · 02:00V. Ivasiv1.83117861M. Khomenko1.8381111113
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