TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384770
Played Aug 9Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012411611––––
Volodymyr Ivasiv
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:14 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Ivasiv to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Volodymyr Ivasiv below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Volodymyr Ivasiv at 58.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 39–74 Volodymyr Ivasiv Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 39 of their 113 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:14What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ivasiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-74 in 113
Ivasiv
Correct
gap of 35 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1615 vs Ivasiv 1538
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Ivasiv 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Ivasiv 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Ivasiv +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Ivasiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.50 / Ivasiv 1.50
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Ivasiv)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12384770
Kovalchuk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 111 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back28% 33 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 54
Ivasiv1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 98 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it75% 68 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk2wins
AwayIvasiv8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderIvasiv leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayIvasiv100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk3Ivasiv7n = 10Ivasiv took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk0Ivasiv10n = 10Ivasiv took 10 of 10
S3Kovalchuk6Ivasiv4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Ivasiv4n = 7Ivasiv took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk1Ivasiv2n = 3Ivasiv took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukIvasivK − IBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.839.9−7.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukIvasivBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 809 vs 556 / 115746.9%48.1%379 / 809 vs 556 / 1157Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvasivKovalchuk 2.50/Ivasiv 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Ivasiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ivasiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 13 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk—951151V. Ivasiv—11115113
WJul 12 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk—11811113V. Ivasiv—811851
LJul 12 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk—8570V. Ivasiv—1111113
LJul 6 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk—681131V. Ivasiv—11119113
LJul 5 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk—811111162V. Ivasiv—111389113
LJul 5 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk—2860V. Ivasiv—1111113
LJun 22 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk—101040V. Ivasiv—1212113
LJun 21 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk—971171V. Ivasiv—11117113
LJun 21 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk—116111122V. Ivasiv—611139113
WJun 15 · 06:05V. Kovalchuk—116118113V. Ivasiv—71161192
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721
V. Ivasiv10
WAug 10 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.63521211V. Ivasiv1.44111110113WAug 10 · 10:05O. Rodin1.674890V. Ivasiv2.101111113WAug 10 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.919811101V. Ivasiv1.8011116123WAug 10 · 06:35Y. Kolos1.441169101V. Ivasiv2.6371111123LAug 10 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.571111113V. Ivasiv2.258650LAug 9 · 19:05O. Alieksieev1.67111111113V. Ivasiv2.10913621LAug 9 · 17:35V. Ivasiv2.00116131072O. Rodin1.73511111293WAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113WAug 9 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.8011470V. Ivasiv1.911311113LAug 9 · 02:00V. Ivasiv1.83117861M. Khomenko1.8381111113
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