TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392228
Played Aug 10Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9118111161012––
Volodymyr Ivasiv
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:14 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Ivasiv to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Volodymyr Ivasiv below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 78 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Volodymyr Ivasiv at 55.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 80–70 Volodymyr Ivasiv Volodymyr Ivasiv has won 70 of their 150 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:14What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ivasiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
80-70 in 150
Khomenko
Wrong
gap of 10 in 150, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1532 vs Ivasiv 1539
Ivasiv
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 60% vs Ivasiv 40%
Khomenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 40% vs Ivasiv 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +2 · Ivasiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ivasiv) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivasiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.91 / Ivasiv 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ivasiv)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12392228
Khomenko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 65 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back16% 10 of 62
Ivasiv1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 99 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 69 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko5wins
AwayIvasiv5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko75%3 of 4
AwayIvasiv66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko4Ivasiv6n = 10Ivasiv took 6 of 10
S2Khomenko5Ivasiv5n = 10split evenly
S3Khomenko6Ivasiv4n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S4Khomenko4Ivasiv2n = 6Khomenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoIvasivK − IBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.432.5+2.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoIvasivBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 899 vs 554 / 115756.5%47.9%508 / 899 vs 554 / 1157Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvasivKhomenko 1.91/Ivasiv 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ivasiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ivasiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 12:35M. Khomenko—11470V. Ivasiv—1311113
WAug 9 · 02:00M. Khomenko—81111113V. Ivasiv—117861
LAug 2 · 18:05M. Khomenko—1011761V. Ivasiv—12411113
LAug 2 · 24:00M. Khomenko—710111172V. Ivasiv—111264113
LJul 26 · 24:00M. Khomenko—1169101V. Ivasiv—41111123
LJul 19 · 24:00M. Khomenko—81320V. Ivasiv—1115113
WJul 12 · 18:05M. Khomenko—1111113V. Ivasiv—9350
WJul 12 · 02:00M. Khomenko—1311113V. Ivasiv—11630
WJul 5 · 18:05M. Khomenko—111011113V. Ivasiv—612991
WJun 29 · 07:05M. Khomenko—81111113V. Ivasiv—118541
M. Khomenko10
WSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113
V. Ivasiv10
WAug 10 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.63521211V. Ivasiv1.44111110113WAug 10 · 10:05O. Rodin1.674890V. Ivasiv2.101111113WAug 10 · 06:35Y. Kolos1.441169101V. Ivasiv2.6371111123LAug 10 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.571111113V. Ivasiv2.258650LAug 9 · 19:05O. Alieksieev1.67111111113V. Ivasiv2.10913621LAug 9 · 17:35V. Ivasiv2.00116131072O. Rodin1.73511111293WAug 9 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk2.5010460V. Ivasiv1.501211113WAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113WAug 9 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.8011470V. Ivasiv1.911311113LAug 9 · 02:00V. Ivasiv1.83117861M. Khomenko1.8381111113
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