TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392335
Played Aug 10Finished
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116115––––
Volodymyr Ivasiv
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:15 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Volodymyr Ivasiv below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 52 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 66.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 3–2 Volodymyr Ivasiv Volodymyr Ivasiv has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1744 vs Ivasiv 1531
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 213 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Ivasiv 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 80% vs Ivasiv 50%
Alieksieev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev +3 · Ivasiv -2
Alieksieev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Alieksieev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivasiv form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.57 / Ivasiv 2.25
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Alieksieev)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12392335
Alieksieev1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 42 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Ivasiv2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 102 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeAlieksieev3wins
AwayIvasiv2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAlieksieev50%2 of 4
AwayIvasivn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alieksieev4Ivasiv1n = 5Alieksieev took 4 of 5
S2Alieksieev1Ivasiv4n = 5Ivasiv took 4 of 5
S3Alieksieev2Ivasiv3n = 5Ivasiv took 3 of 5
S4Alieksieev4Ivasiv1n = 5Alieksieev took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricAlieksieevIvasivA − IBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match41.838.6+3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevIvasivBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 189 vs 553 / 115557.7%47.9%109 / 189 vs 553 / 1155Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.57/Ivasiv 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 9 · 19:05O. Alieksieev—111111113V. Ivasiv—913621
WAug 8 · 21:30O. Alieksieev—751211113V. Ivasiv—111110652
WJul 27 · 04:35O. Alieksieev—11118113V. Ivasiv—581141
LJul 26 · 12:34O. Alieksieev—11391192V. Ivasiv—911117113
LJul 26 · 01:30O. Alieksieev—1191231V. Ivasiv—71114113
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650
V. Ivasiv10
WAug 10 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.63521211V. Ivasiv1.44111110113WAug 10 · 10:05O. Rodin1.674890V. Ivasiv2.101111113WAug 10 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.919811101V. Ivasiv1.8011116123WAug 10 · 06:35Y. Kolos1.441169101V. Ivasiv2.6371111123LAug 9 · 19:05O. Alieksieev1.67111111113V. Ivasiv2.10913621LAug 9 · 17:35V. Ivasiv2.00116131072O. Rodin1.73511111293WAug 9 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk2.5010460V. Ivasiv1.501211113WAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113WAug 9 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.8011470V. Ivasiv1.911311113LAug 9 · 02:00V. Ivasiv1.83117861M. Khomenko1.8381111113
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