TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384648
Played Aug 9Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117113––––
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 50 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 51–19 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 19 of their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:02What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-19 in 70
Novak
Correct
gap of 32 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1488 vs Kovalchuk 1598
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 20% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 30% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -4 · Kovalchuk -1
Novak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.53 / Kovalchuk 2.38
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novak)-6.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12384648
Novak1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 125 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it90% 77 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it74% 93 of 125
Kovalchuk2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 111 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back28% 33 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak80%4 of 5
AwayKovalchuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Novak3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Novak5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Novak4Kovalchuk1n = 5Novak took 4 of 5
S5Novak2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakKovalchukN − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.234.8+1.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 521 vs 379 / 81053.2%46.8%277 / 521 vs 379 / 810Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.53/Kovalchuk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 24:30R. Novak—611911113V. Kovalchuk—11511852
WJul 13 · 05:35R. Novak—12711113V. Kovalchuk—1011771
LJul 11 · 21:00R. Novak—6660V. Kovalchuk—1111113
LJul 6 · 05:35R. Novak—59160V. Kovalchuk—1111183
WJul 5 · 13:05R. Novak—1110116113V. Kovalchuk—61261162
LJun 22 · 08:05R. Novak—93111152V. Kovalchuk—111195113
LJun 21 · 15:35R. Novak—9880V. Kovalchuk—1111113
WJun 20 · 21:00R. Novak—1111143V. Kovalchuk—65120
LJun 15 · 09:05R. Novak—11781162V. Kovalchuk—611114113
WApr 26 · 13:05R. Novak—1111113V. Kovalchuk—4540
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481WAug 8 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak1.44911461R. Novak2.6311611113
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721
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