TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378643
Played Aug 8Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811114118––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched — 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 71.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 1–1 Oleksii Rodin Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:08What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rodin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Novak 1531 vs Rodin 1570
Rodin
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Rodin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 50% vs Rodin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +1 · Rodin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rodin) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 2.63 / Rodin 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Rodin)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12378643
Novak2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 33 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Rodin1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 123 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it81% 83 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNovak1wins
AwayRodin1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNovakRodinN − RBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match41.045.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 514 vs 139 / 21753.5%64.1%275 / 514 vs 139 / 217Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinNovak 2.63/Rodin 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 2 · 18:35R. Novak—711129113O. Rodin—119101192
LAug 1 · 23:30R. Novak—671181O. Rodin—11117113
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak1.44911461R. Novak2.6311611113
O. Rodin10
WSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111LSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793WAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123
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