TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111935
Played Sep 11Finished
Volodymyr Korobko
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111012114511––
Ruslan Novak
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:42 and never touched — 82.6% is still 82.6%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
82.6%
82.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Korobko above · Ruslan Novak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 82.6%
69 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Korobko 5–16 Ruslan Novak Volodymyr Korobko has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Novak
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobko 1460 vs Novak 1519
Novak
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobko 20% vs Novak 40%
Novak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobko 30% vs Novak 50%
Novak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobko -1 · Novak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Novak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobko 4.33 / Novak 1.20
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Novak)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111935
Korobko4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 39 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Novak1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 101 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobko0wins
AwayNovak10wins
Novak leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNovak100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobko2Novak8n = 10Novak took 8 of 10
S2Korobko0Novak10n = 10Novak took 10 of 10
S3Korobko2Novak8n = 10Novak took 8 of 10
S4Korobko0Novak4n = 4Novak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobkoNovakK − NBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match23.437.8−14.4per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobkoNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 477 vs 258 / 48845.3%52.9%216 / 477 vs 258 / 488Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakKorobko 4.33/Novak 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.6%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 20 · 22:00V. Korobko—71420R. Novak—1116113
LMar 22 · 15:35V. Korobko—8940R. Novak—1111113
LMar 22 · 01:30V. Korobko—9650R. Novak—1111113
LMar 8 · 02:30V. Korobko—6390R. Novak—1111113
LFeb 22 · 15:35V. Korobko—112931R. Novak—91111113
LFeb 21 · 23:30V. Korobko—9140R. Novak—1111113
LFeb 8 · 14:35V. Korobko—481121R. Novak—11118113
LFeb 8 · 04:00V. Korobko—1110731R. Novak—71211113
LJan 25 · 18:05V. Korobko—351771R. Novak—111115113
LJan 24 · 23:30V. Korobko—111040R. Novak—1312113
V. Korobko10
LSep 8 · 02:15D. Maltsev1.25119411113V. Korobko3.7541111862WSep 8 · 01:15V. Korobko1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007850LSep 8 · 24:15V. Korobko2.00991111112I. Pytsko1.73111175133LSep 7 · 22:45V. Korobko1.9171111592O. Storozhenko1.80113711113LSep 7 · 20:45V. Korobko4.3371141352M. Potapov1.201171111113LSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970LSep 6 · 01:00V. Korobko2.2061060M. Khomenko1.611112113LSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113WSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472WSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151
R. Novak10
WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481WAug 8 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak1.44911461R. Novak2.6311611113
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