TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384777
Played Aug 9Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151161517118––
Maksym Khomenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Maksym Khomenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 84 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 28–26 Maksym Khomenko Maksym Khomenko has won 26 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-26 in 54
Novak
Correct
gap of 2 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1519 vs Khomenko 1504
Novak
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 20% vs Khomenko 40%
Khomenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 40% vs Khomenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +1 · Khomenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.57 / Khomenko 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Novak)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384777
Novak1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 125 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it90% 77 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it74% 93 of 125
Khomenko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back16% 10 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak6wins
AwayKhomenko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak57.1%4 of 7
AwayKhomenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak7Khomenko3n = 10Novak took 7 of 10
S2Novak5Khomenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Novak5Khomenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Novak7Khomenko1n = 8Novak took 7 of 8
S5Novak1Khomenko3n = 4Khomenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakKhomenkoN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.035.1+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 523 vs 509 / 90053.4%56.6%279 / 523 vs 509 / 900Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.57/Khomenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.9%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 01:00R. Novak—71111113M. Khomenko—114461
WAug 2 · 14:35R. Novak—11119113M. Khomenko—531131
LAug 1 · 22:30R. Novak—117111372M. Khomenko—9111311113
LJul 26 · 01:00R. Novak—6101181M. Khomenko—11124113
WJul 12 · 01:00R. Novak—1111113M. Khomenko—5650
LJul 5 · 17:05R. Novak—11851192M. Khomenko—511116113
WJun 29 · 09:35R. Novak—11116113M. Khomenko—741151
WJun 28 · 17:05R. Novak—1111113M. Khomenko—9980
LJun 28 · 01:00R. Novak—11691142M. Khomenko—511119113
WJun 22 · 05:05R. Novak—631211123M. Khomenko—1111109102
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481WAug 8 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak1.44911461R. Novak2.6311611113
M. Khomenko10
WSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Novak
M. Khomenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.