TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378740
Played Aug 8Finished
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911116411611––
Ruslan Novak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:27 and never touched — 74.5% is still 74.5%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
74.5%
74.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Vorsuliak above · Ruslan Novak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 74.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Vorsuliak 29–13 Ruslan Novak Ruslan Novak has won 13 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vorsuliak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-13 in 42
Vorsuliak
Wrong
gap of 16 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorsuliak 1571 vs Novak 1518
Vorsuliak
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorsuliak 80% vs Novak 40%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorsuliak 60% vs Novak 40%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorsuliak -1 · Novak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Vorsuliak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorsuliak 1.44 / Novak 2.63
Signal prob.75% / 26%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12378740
Vorsuliak1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 85 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it78% 60 of 77
Novak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 33 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorsuliak9wins
AwayNovak1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorsuliak83.3%5 of 6
AwayNovak0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorsuliak6Novak4n = 10Vorsuliak took 6 of 10
S2Vorsuliak7Novak3n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S3Vorsuliak7Novak3n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S4Vorsuliak6Novak1n = 7Vorsuliak took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorsuliakNovakV − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.935.9+5.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorsuliakNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime428 / 844 vs 274 / 51350.7%53.4%428 / 844 vs 274 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakVorsuliak 1.44/Novak 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.5%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 08:05Y. Vorsuliak—12511113R. Novak—1011661
WJul 20 · 08:05Y. Vorsuliak—11127113R. Novak—7101141
WJul 19 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak—811412113R. Novak—118111052
WJul 13 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak—1112113R. Novak—91070
WJun 29 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak—1111123R. Novak—89100
WJun 28 · 19:05Y. Vorsuliak—1111113R. Novak—5980
WJun 28 · 03:00Y. Vorsuliak—101311113R. Novak—1211281
LJun 22 · 10:05Y. Vorsuliak—1111761R. Novak—71311113
WJun 21 · 19:05Y. Vorsuliak—811112113R. Novak—111181072
WJun 21 · 03:00Y. Vorsuliak—101511233R. Novak—12136211
Y. Vorsuliak10
WSep 11 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.107660Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113LSep 11 · 10:05V. Krokhmal1.8061111133Y. Vorsuliak1.911199111LSep 11 · 08:35M. Loboda1.4411114113Y. Vorsuliak2.63631191LSep 11 · 06:35V. Slozka1.61118119113Y. Vorsuliak2.2091171182WSep 11 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.447590Y. Vorsuliak2.631111113WSep 10 · 19:05V. Slozka1.57115111182Y. Vorsuliak2.25611413113LSep 10 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak1.83111151272V. Krokhmal1.831391110113WSep 10 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2010111081Y. Vorsuliak1.6112912113LSep 10 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.4411113113Y. Vorsuliak2.63751171LSep 10 · 12:35M. Loboda1.4411138113Y. Vorsuliak2.636111161
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481
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