TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111176
Played Sep 11Finished
Vitalii Krokhmal
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111191191311––
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Krokhmal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Krokhmal above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 81 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Vitalii Krokhmal at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Krokhmal 12–6 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Yaroslav Vorsuliak has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krokhmal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Krokhmal
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krokhmal 1623 vs Vorsuliak 1606
Krokhmal
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krokhmal 20% vs Vorsuliak 40%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krokhmal 20% vs Vorsuliak 40%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krokhmal -3 · Vorsuliak -2
Krokhmal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krokhmal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrokhmal 1.80 / Vorsuliak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krokhmal)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111176
Krokhmal1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 51 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it81% 29 of 36
Vorsuliak1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 106 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrokhmal6wins
AwayVorsuliak4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKrokhmal leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrokhmal80%4 of 5
AwayVorsuliak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krokhmal5Vorsuliak5n = 10split evenly
S2Krokhmal6Vorsuliak4n = 10Krokhmal took 6 of 10
S3Krokhmal3Vorsuliak7n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S4Krokhmal4Vorsuliak4n = 8split evenly
S5Krokhmal5Vorsuliak2n = 7Krokhmal took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrokhmalVorsuliakK − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.843.5−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokhmalVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 356 vs 449 / 89446.1%50.2%164 / 356 vs 449 / 894Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrokhmalKrokhmal 1.80/Vorsuliak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krokhmal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krokhmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 17:35V. Krokhmal—1391110113Y. Vorsuliak—111151272
LSep 9 · 22:00V. Krokhmal—213111082Y. Vorsuliak—1111812113
WJul 31 · 11:35V. Krokhmal—131148113Y. Vorsuliak—118111152
WJul 30 · 17:35V. Krokhmal—1111123Y. Vorsuliak—69100
WJul 30 · 24:00V. Krokhmal—711911113Y. Vorsuliak—11811992
LJul 27 · 20:15V. Krokhmal—1191391Y. Vorsuliak—51115113
WJul 24 · 10:05V. Krokhmal—118911113Y. Vorsuliak—71111792
WJul 23 · 17:35V. Krokhmal—811511113Y. Vorsuliak—11911962
LJul 9 · 03:00V. Krokhmal—611101142Y. Vorsuliak—118129113
LJul 6 · 17:35V. Krokhmal—7580Y. Vorsuliak—1111113
V. Krokhmal10
WSep 11 · 11:35V. Slozka1.839148101V. Krokhmal1.83111211123LSep 11 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi2.75111110113V. Krokhmal1.40461291WSep 11 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.671168111V. Krokhmal2.1091111133WSep 11 · 05:05M. Loboda1.8311611382V. Krokhmal1.83511811113WSep 10 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.258890V. Krokhmal1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak1.83111151272V. Krokhmal1.831391110113WSep 10 · 16:05M. Loboda1.80711971V. Krokhmal1.9111311113LSep 10 · 14:05V. Slozka1.8361112113V. Krokhmal1.831171031LSep 10 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.61119118123V. Krokhmal2.20911311102WSep 10 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi2.2589150V. Krokhmal1.571111173
Y. Vorsuliak10
WSep 11 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.107660Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113LSep 11 · 08:35M. Loboda1.4411114113Y. Vorsuliak2.63631191LSep 11 · 06:35V. Slozka1.61118119113Y. Vorsuliak2.2091171182WSep 11 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.447590Y. Vorsuliak2.631111113WSep 10 · 19:05V. Slozka1.57115111182Y. Vorsuliak2.25611413113LSep 10 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak1.83111151272V. Krokhmal1.831391110113WSep 10 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2010111081Y. Vorsuliak1.6112912113LSep 10 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.4411113113Y. Vorsuliak2.63751171LSep 10 · 12:35M. Loboda1.4411138113Y. Vorsuliak2.636111161WSep 10 · 03:00Y. Vorsuliak2.5011111113V. Slozka1.50811751
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