TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111441
Played Sep 11Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141161012119––
Vitalii Krokhmal
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeVitalii Krokhmal to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Vitalii Krokhmal below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vitalii Krokhmal at 64.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 3–13 Vitalii Krokhmal Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Krokhmal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-13 in 16
Krokhmal
Wrong
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1503 vs Krokhmal 1639
Krokhmal
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 20% vs Krokhmal 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 10% vs Krokhmal 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi +1 · Krokhmal -3
Krokhmal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Krokhmal) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krokhmal form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.75 / Krokhmal 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Krokhmal)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111441
Shchegelskyi2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 67 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back24% 27 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Krokhmal1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 51 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it81% 29 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi2wins
AwayKrokhmal8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrokhmal leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi50%2 of 4
AwayKrokhmal100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi4Krokhmal6n = 10Krokhmal took 6 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi3Krokhmal7n = 10Krokhmal took 7 of 10
S3Shchegelskyi3Krokhmal7n = 10Krokhmal took 7 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi1Krokhmal4n = 5Krokhmal took 4 of 5
S5Shchegelskyi1Krokhmal2n = 3Krokhmal took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiKrokhmalS − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.439.2−3.8per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiKrokhmalBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 907 vs 164 / 35552.7%46.2%478 / 907 vs 164 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrokhmalShchegelskyi 2.75/Krokhmal 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Krokhmal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi—8890V. Krokhmal—1111113
LSep 10 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi—89150V. Krokhmal—1111173
LAug 21 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi—111111872V. Krokhmal—137911113
LAug 20 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi—1111991V. Krokhmal—13611113
LAug 16 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi—9660V. Krokhmal—1111113
LJun 28 · 21:15D. Shchegelskyi—118691V. Krokhmal—81111113
LJun 26 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi—14971142V. Krokhmal—1211113113
WJun 25 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi—1111113V. Krokhmal—3890
LJun 24 · 22:30D. Shchegelskyi—610120V. Krokhmal—1112143
WJun 21 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi—1121210133V. Krokhmal—5111012112
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 11 · 07:05M. Loboda1.5781261142D. Shchegelskyi2.251110116113LSep 11 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.5041280V. Slozka1.501114113LSep 10 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.258890V. Krokhmal1.331111113LSep 10 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.4411211113D. Shchegelskyi2.63611691LSep 10 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2010111081Y. Vorsuliak1.6112912113LSep 10 · 14:35M. Loboda1.611111113D. Shchegelskyi2.207750LSep 10 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi2.5015961192V. Slozka1.501311119113LSep 10 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi2.2589150V. Krokhmal1.571111173LSep 10 · 24:30I. Hrekh1.531211113D. Shchegelskyi2.3810730LSep 9 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi2.63131110052V. Slozka1.441181211113
V. Krokhmal10
WSep 11 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.671168111V. Krokhmal2.1091111133WSep 11 · 05:05M. Loboda1.8311611382V. Krokhmal1.83511811113WSep 10 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi3.258890V. Krokhmal1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak1.83111151272V. Krokhmal1.831391110113WSep 10 · 16:05M. Loboda1.80711971V. Krokhmal1.9111311113LSep 10 · 14:05V. Slozka1.8361112113V. Krokhmal1.831171031LSep 10 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.61119118123V. Krokhmal2.20911311102WSep 10 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi2.2589150V. Krokhmal1.571111173LSep 10 · 01:30V. Slozka1.911111113V. Krokhmal1.804680LSep 10 · 24:00M. Loboda1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.835810
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