TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13099734
Played Sep 10Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8119111517––––
Vitalii Krokhmal
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:58 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeVitalii Krokhmal to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Vitalii Krokhmal below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 15-17
Point 71 set 3, 15-17 — our read held Vitalii Krokhmal at 60.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 3–11 Vitalii Krokhmal Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:58What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krokhmal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-11 in 14
Krokhmal
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1547 vs Krokhmal 1600
Krokhmal
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 60% vs Krokhmal 20%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 60% vs Krokhmal 20%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -2 · Krokhmal -3
Krokhmal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Krokhmal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krokhmal form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.25 / Krokhmal 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Krokhmal)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13099734
Shchegelskyi2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 66 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 59
Krokhmal1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 49 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi2wins
AwayKrokhmal8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrokhmal leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi50%2 of 4
AwayKrokhmal100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi4Krokhmal6n = 10Krokhmal took 6 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi5Krokhmal5n = 10split evenly
S3Shchegelskyi3Krokhmal7n = 10Krokhmal took 7 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi1Krokhmal6n = 7Krokhmal took 6 of 7
S5Shchegelskyi1Krokhmal2n = 3Krokhmal took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiKrokhmalS − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.741.6−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiKrokhmalBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 904 vs 158 / 34752.9%45.5%478 / 904 vs 158 / 347Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrokhmalShchegelskyi 2.25/Krokhmal 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Krokhmal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Krokhmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi—111111872V. Krokhmal—137911113
LAug 20 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi—1111991V. Krokhmal—13611113
LAug 16 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi—9660V. Krokhmal—1111113
LJun 28 · 21:15D. Shchegelskyi—118691V. Krokhmal—81111113
LJun 26 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi—14971142V. Krokhmal—1211113113
WJun 25 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi—1111113V. Krokhmal—3890
LJun 24 · 22:30D. Shchegelskyi—610120V. Krokhmal—1112143
WJun 21 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi—1121210133V. Krokhmal—5111012112
LJun 18 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi—13141481V. Krokhmal—151216113
LJun 12 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi—411791V. Krokhmal—11911113
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 10 · 24:30I. Hrekh1.531211113D. Shchegelskyi2.3810730LSep 9 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi2.63131110052V. Slozka1.441181211113WSep 9 · 22:30M. Loboda1.6181111282D. Shchegelskyi2.20118911113WSep 9 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi2.2081111113Y. Vorsuliak1.61117581WSep 7 · 10:13Y. Vorsuliak1.67111177102D. Shchegelskyi2.10681111123WSep 7 · 09:05D. Shchegelskyi1.8312311153Y. Kolos1.8310118131WSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982WSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113LSep 6 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi2.109970M. Loboda1.671111113
V. Krokhmal10
LSep 10 · 01:30V. Slozka1.911111113V. Krokhmal1.804680LSep 10 · 24:00M. Loboda1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.835810LSep 9 · 22:00Y. Vorsuliak1.911111812113V. Krokhmal1.80213111082LSep 9 · 20:00I. Hrekh1.671111113V. Krokhmal2.104660WSep 8 · 03:00V. Slozka1.91917111152V. Krokhmal1.80111957113WSep 8 · 01:30V. Krokhmal1.83811119123M. Loboda1.83118911102WSep 7 · 23:30R. Konkulovskyi1.9111461192V. Krokhmal1.80911117113WSep 7 · 21:30I. Hrekh1.67811111032V. Krokhmal2.10119412113LSep 7 · 20:30G. Kuzmenko1.61581111113V. Krokhmal2.2011116292LSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113
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