TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100595
Played Sep 9Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210114115––––
Ivan Pytsko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Pytsko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Ivan Pytsko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Ivan Pytsko at 54.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 55–74 Ivan Pytsko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 55 of their 129 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Tebenko beat Pytsko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:26What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pytsko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-74 in 129
Pytsko
Wrong
gap of 19 in 129, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1600 vs Pytsko 1521
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Pytsko 40%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 40% vs Pytsko 60%
Pytsko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +3 · Pytsko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pytsko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pytsko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.00 / Pytsko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pytsko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13100595
Tebenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 130 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back32% 46 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 79
Pytsko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 51 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it71% 40 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko9wins
AwayPytsko1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko100%6 of 6
AwayPytsko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko6Pytsko4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko7Pytsko3n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S3Tebenko4Pytsko6n = 10Pytsko took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko6Pytsko0n = 6Tebenko took 6 of 6
S5Tebenko4Pytsko0n = 4Tebenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoPytskoT − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.733.5+8.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoPytskoBasisWin rate · lifetime397 / 828 vs 334 / 60048%55.7%397 / 828 vs 334 / 600Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PytskoTebenko 2.00/Pytsko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Pytsko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko—1111163I. Pytsko—78140
WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko—9111311113I. Pytsko—11915862
WSep 2 · 07:05Y. Tebenko—11117113I. Pytsko—831171
LAug 25 · 02:30Y. Tebenko—5850I. Pytsko—1111113
WAug 5 · 11:05Y. Tebenko—1211113I. Pytsko—10490
WJul 17 · 20:15Y. Tebenko—1111113I. Pytsko—5550
WJul 15 · 11:35Y. Tebenko—111011113I. Pytsko—712581
WJul 14 · 14:35Y. Tebenko—10111011113I. Pytsko—12312452
WJul 13 · 22:30Y. Tebenko—811911113I. Pytsko—11911432
WJul 10 · 02:45Y. Tebenko—1181013113I. Pytsko—811121192
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko2.001111163I. Pytsko1.7378140WSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113WSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko2.1081111113O. Storozhenko1.67117991LSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113
I. Pytsko10
LSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko2.001111163I. Pytsko1.7378140LSep 8 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.571111711113I. Pytsko2.2588111382LSep 8 · 16:05M. Potapov2.10115711113I. Pytsko1.6781111772WSep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.204111281I. Pytsko1.6111514113WSep 8 · 12:05V. Moshovskyi2.25111110992I. Pytsko1.57891211113LSep 8 · 02:45O. Storozhenko1.6111114113I. Pytsko2.20381151WSep 8 · 01:45M. Potapov2.106880I. Pytsko1.671111113WSep 8 · 24:15V. Korobko2.00991111112I. Pytsko1.73111175133WSep 7 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi1.91611116102I. Pytsko1.80119611123WSep 7 · 20:15D. Maltsev1.83114134172I. Pytsko1.839111111193
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