TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094683
Played Sep 8Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111155111210911
Denys Maltsev
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 55–43 Denys Maltsev Denys Maltsev has won 43 of their 98 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tebenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-43 in 98
Tebenko
Wrong
gap of 12 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1596 vs Maltsev 1498
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 20% vs Maltsev 40%
Maltsev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 40% vs Maltsev 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko -2 · Maltsev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.73 / Maltsev 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Tebenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094683
Tebenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 77 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it77% 48 of 62
Maltsev2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 92 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko6wins
AwayMaltsev4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko50%3 of 6
AwayMaltsev25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko6Maltsev4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko6Maltsev4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko2Maltsev8n = 10Maltsev took 8 of 10
S4Tebenko4Maltsev4n = 8split evenly
S5Tebenko5Maltsev2n = 7Tebenko took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoMaltsevT − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.441.9+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 823 vs 449 / 88047.9%51%394 / 823 vs 449 / 880Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.73/Maltsev 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko—8220D. Maltsev—1111113
WSep 4 · 16:25Y. Tebenko—12101011173D. Maltsev—1012129152
WAug 31 · 08:05Y. Tebenko—911611113D. Maltsev—11811922
LAug 29 · 02:45Y. Tebenko—117981D. Maltsev—21111113
LAug 26 · 11:05Y. Tebenko—11561192D. Maltsev—611115113
WAug 25 · 14:35Y. Tebenko—111189113D. Maltsev—98111162
LAug 24 · 23:30Y. Tebenko—11119882D. Maltsev—881111113
WAug 20 · 23:45Y. Tebenko—413411123D. Maltsev—1111115102
WAug 19 · 11:05Y. Tebenko—9121110113D. Maltsev—111051272
WAug 14 · 20:30Y. Tebenko—1111113D. Maltsev—3990
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110
D. Maltsev10
LSep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.204111281I. Pytsko1.6111514113WSep 8 · 02:15D. Maltsev1.25119411113V. Korobko3.7541111862LSep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83711911112O. Storozhenko1.83117114133LSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev1.67411971I. Fashchevskyi2.1011811113WSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092LSep 7 · 20:15D. Maltsev1.83114134172I. Pytsko1.839111111193WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173
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