TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094716
Played Sep 8Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117119119––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 24–32 Oleksandr Storozhenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 24 of their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:50What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-32 in 56
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1565 vs Storozhenko 1598
Storozhenko
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 20% vs Storozhenko 60%
Storozhenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 30% vs Storozhenko 60%
Storozhenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko -4 · Storozhenko -1
Tebenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.10 / Storozhenko 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Storozhenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094716
Tebenko2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 127 of 267
Down 0–1, comes back31% 44 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 78
Storozhenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 157 of 284
Up 2–0, closes it86% 56 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it68% 99 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko5wins
AwayStorozhenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko80%4 of 5
AwayStorozhenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Tebenko5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Tebenko5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Tebenko3Storozhenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoStorozhenkoT − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.734.1−1.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 825 vs 248 / 47647.8%52.1%394 / 825 vs 248 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoTebenko 2.10/Storozhenko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko—116611113O. Storozhenko—41111972
LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko—31212672O. Storozhenko—11101011113
WSep 3 · 23:15Y. Tebenko—1111113O. Storozhenko—9790
LAug 31 · 05:35Y. Tebenko—10860O. Storozhenko—1211113
WAug 28 · 23:45Y. Tebenko—1111113O. Storozhenko—5770
LAug 26 · 08:05Y. Tebenko—115481O. Storozhenko—41111113
WAug 25 · 13:35Y. Tebenko—51111113O. Storozhenko—116971
LAug 21 · 02:45Y. Tebenko—761181O. Storozhenko—11117113
WAug 18 · 15:35Y. Tebenko—11115113O. Storozhenko—341171
LAug 15 · 01:00Y. Tebenko—4660O. Storozhenko—1111113
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113LSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173
O. Storozhenko10
LSep 8 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi2.10121011123O. Storozhenko1.6710126101WSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.25411571O. Storozhenko1.5711611113WSep 8 · 02:45O. Storozhenko1.6111114113I. Pytsko2.20381151WSep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83711911112O. Storozhenko1.83117114133LSep 7 · 23:45O. Storozhenko1.5081151182M. Potapov2.50114114113WSep 7 · 22:45V. Korobko1.9171111592O. Storozhenko1.80113711113WSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko1.57811811113I. Fashchevskyi2.2511711972WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113
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