TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116821
Played Sep 12Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117119119––
Ruslan Novak
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Ruslan Novak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 61.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 19–52 Ruslan Novak Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 19 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-52 in 71
Novak
Wrong
gap of 33 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1570 vs Novak 1535
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Novak 60%
Novak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 30% vs Novak 50%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -4 · Novak +1
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.50 / Novak 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Novak)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13116821
Kovalchuk2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 115 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back28% 33 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 57
Novak1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 100 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayNovak5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayNovak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Novak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk7Novak3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Novak5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk1Novak4n = 5Novak took 4 of 5
S5Kovalchuk2Novak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukNovakK − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.236.2−1.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 801 vs 261 / 49347.8%52.9%383 / 801 vs 261 / 493Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakKovalchuk 2.50/Novak 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk177730R. Novak331111113
LAug 2 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk4011511852R. Novak48611911113
LJul 13 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk351011771R. Novak4112711113
WJul 11 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk331111113R. Novak186660
WJul 6 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk401111183R. Novak3059160
LJul 5 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk4161261162R. Novak491110116113
WJun 22 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk47111195113R. Novak3993111152
WJun 21 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk331111113R. Novak259880
LJun 20 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2365120R. Novak361111143
WJun 15 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk43611114113R. Novak4311781162
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032
R. Novak10
LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771LSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221WSep 11 · 22:15R. Novak1.6111911173I. Pytsko2.207117151WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Kovalchuk
Sep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.50O. Rodin1.50—Sep 13 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk1.61Y. Tebenko2.20—Sep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.38Y. Parahailo1.53—Sep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.38Y. Parahailo1.53—Sep 13 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk1.80Y. Kolos1.91—Sep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.73M. Khomenko2.00—Sep 13 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk2.50R. Novak1.50—
R. Novak
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