TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111695
Played Sep 12Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811114116116––
Ruslan Novak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Ruslan Novak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 1–6 Ruslan Novak Yaroslav Tebenko has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Novak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1634 vs Novak 1529
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Novak 80%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 80% vs Novak 50%
Tebenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko -2 · Novak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.20 / Novak 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Novak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111695
Tebenko2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 133 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back32% 47 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 79
Novak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 101 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTebenko1wins
AwayNovak6wins
4 of 7 to a deciderNovak leads 6–1, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayNovak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko3Novak4n = 7Novak took 4 of 7
S2Tebenko2Novak5n = 7Novak took 5 of 7
S3Tebenko4Novak3n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S4Tebenko4Novak3n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5Tebenko0Novak4n = 4Novak took 4 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away457%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricTebenkoNovakT − NBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match40.645.0−4.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime396 / 821 vs 260 / 49148.2%53%396 / 821 vs 260 / 491Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakTebenko 2.20/Novak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LFeb 15 · 02:30Y. Tebenko—118101192R. Novak—811127113
LJan 12 · 12:05Y. Tebenko—41111782R. Novak—118911113
WJan 8 · 07:25Y. Tebenko—11127143R. Novak—61011121
LJan 7 · 18:55Y. Tebenko—261161R. Novak—11117113
LJun 23 · 11:05Y. Tebenko—116571R. Novak—41111113
LMay 7 · 05:35Y. Tebenko—811111682R. Novak—1113314113
LFeb 25 · 06:35Y. Tebenko—38111192R. Novak—111178113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko2.007570I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 11 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.738750V. Korobko2.001111113WSep 11 · 20:45Y. Tebenko1.9111513113O. Storozhenko1.807111181WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100WSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113WSep 9 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.001111113O. Storozhenko1.738980WSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.001211113I. Pytsko1.7310450WSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko2.001111163I. Pytsko1.7378140WSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113
R. Novak10
LSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221WSep 11 · 22:15R. Novak1.6111911173I. Pytsko2.207117151WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113
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