TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100744
Played Sep 9Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119118––––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 54.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 26–32 Oleksandr Storozhenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 26 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-32 in 58
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1658 vs Storozhenko 1573
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 100% vs Storozhenko 40%
Tebenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Storozhenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +5 · Storozhenko -2
Tebenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.00 / Storozhenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Storozhenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13100744
Tebenko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 130 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back32% 46 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 79
Storozhenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 160 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it87% 58 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it69% 102 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko6wins
AwayStorozhenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko80%4 of 5
AwayStorozhenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Tebenko6Storozhenko4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko7Storozhenko3n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S4Tebenko3Storozhenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoStorozhenkoT − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.734.4+0.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 828 vs 251 / 48448.3%51.9%400 / 828 vs 251 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoTebenko 2.00/Storozhenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 08:05Y. Tebenko—1111113O. Storozhenko—8980
WSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko—81111113O. Storozhenko—117991
WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko—116611113O. Storozhenko—41111972
LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko—31212672O. Storozhenko—11101011113
WSep 3 · 23:15Y. Tebenko—1111113O. Storozhenko—9790
LAug 31 · 05:35Y. Tebenko—10860O. Storozhenko—1211113
WAug 28 · 23:45Y. Tebenko—1111113O. Storozhenko—5770
LAug 26 · 08:05Y. Tebenko—115481O. Storozhenko—41111113
WAug 25 · 13:35Y. Tebenko—51111113O. Storozhenko—116971
LAug 21 · 02:45Y. Tebenko—761181O. Storozhenko—11117113
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100WSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113WSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.001211113I. Pytsko1.7310450WSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko2.001111163I. Pytsko1.7378140WSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113WSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko2.1081111113O. Storozhenko1.67117991LSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113
O. Storozhenko10
LSep 9 · 11:35I. Pytsko2.25121011123O. Storozhenko1.5710126101WSep 9 · 10:05O. Storozhenko1.6712611113I. Fashchevskyi2.101011481LSep 9 · 06:05D. Maltsev2.10135411113O. Storozhenko1.67111111972LSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50118961WSep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev2.007750O. Storozhenko1.731111113WSep 8 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.571111711113I. Pytsko2.2588111382LSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko2.1081111113O. Storozhenko1.67117991LSep 8 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi2.10121011123O. Storozhenko1.6710126101WSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.25411571O. Storozhenko1.5711611113WSep 8 · 02:45O. Storozhenko1.6111114113I. Pytsko2.20381151
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