TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100722
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210611114118––
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Storozhenko above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 59.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Storozhenko 22–19 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 19 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-19 in 41
Storozhenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Storozhenko 1579 vs Fashchevskyi 1439
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Storozhenko 40% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Storozhenko 50% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Storozhenko -3 · Fashchevskyi +1
Storozhenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStorozhenko 1.67 / Fashchevskyi 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Storozhenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100722
Storozhenko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 160 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it87% 58 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it69% 102 of 149
Fashchevskyi2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 88 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back27% 26 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStorozhenko7wins
AwayFashchevskyi3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStorozhenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayFashchevskyi25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Storozhenko6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S2Storozhenko7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S3Storozhenko3Fashchevskyi7n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S4Storozhenko7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S5Storozhenko2Fashchevskyi1n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStorozhenkoFashchevskyiS − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.636.9+4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStorozhenkoFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 482 vs 282 / 55751.9%50.6%250 / 482 vs 282 / 557Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoStorozhenko 1.67/Fashchevskyi 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko—811811113I. Fashchevskyi—11711972
LSep 3 · 21:45O. Storozhenko—111181082I. Fashchevskyi—281112113
WAug 31 · 06:35O. Storozhenko—117511113I. Fashchevskyi—51111782
WAug 30 · 03:00O. Storozhenko—81412113I. Fashchevskyi—11121011
WAug 28 · 21:45O. Storozhenko—11115113I. Fashchevskyi—681161
LAug 26 · 06:05O. Storozhenko—811961I. Fashchevskyi—11311113
WAug 25 · 17:38O. Storozhenko—81111113I. Fashchevskyi—118651
LAug 25 · 16:35O. Storozhenko—115991I. Fashchevskyi—81111113
WAug 20 · 22:15O. Storozhenko—13115113I. Fashchevskyi—1131181
WAug 18 · 19:05O. Storozhenko—11811123I. Fashchevskyi—6116101
O. Storozhenko10
LSep 9 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.001111113O. Storozhenko1.738980LSep 9 · 06:05D. Maltsev2.10135411113O. Storozhenko1.67111111972LSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50118961WSep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev2.007750O. Storozhenko1.731111113WSep 8 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.571111711113I. Pytsko2.2588111382LSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko2.1081111113O. Storozhenko1.67117991LSep 8 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi2.10121011123O. Storozhenko1.6710126101WSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.25411571O. Storozhenko1.5711611113WSep 8 · 02:45O. Storozhenko1.6111114113I. Pytsko2.20381151WSep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83711911112O. Storozhenko1.83117114133
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113LSep 9 · 06:35I. Pytsko1.731211125133I. Fashchevskyi2.001471011112LSep 9 · 04:35D. Maltsev1.80671114113I. Fashchevskyi1.91111151212WSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2.001111113M. Potapov1.735890LSep 8 · 01:15V. Korobko1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007850WSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev1.67411971I. Fashchevskyi2.1011811113LSep 7 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi1.91611116102I. Pytsko1.80119611123LSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko1.57811811113I. Fashchevskyi2.2511711972LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113
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