TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100478
Played Sep 9Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811115611117711
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 11–15 Ivan Fashchevskyi Mykhailo Potapov has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fashchevskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-15 in 26
Fashchevskyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1567 vs Fashchevskyi 1424
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 80% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Potapov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 60% vs Fashchevskyi 30%
Potapov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -1 · Fashchevskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.83 / Fashchevskyi 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Potapov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100478
Potapov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Fashchevskyi1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov3wins
AwayFashchevskyi7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov75%3 of 4
AwayFashchevskyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Potapov6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S3Potapov2Fashchevskyi8n = 10Fashchevskyi took 8 of 10
S4Potapov6Fashchevskyi3n = 9Potapov took 6 of 9
S5Potapov0Fashchevskyi3n = 3Fashchevskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovFashchevskyiP − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.2−0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 425 vs 281 / 55647.5%50.5%202 / 425 vs 281 / 556Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.83/Fashchevskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 03:15M. Potapov—5890I. Fashchevskyi—1111113
WSep 4 · 01:45M. Potapov—11811113I. Fashchevskyi—811661
LSep 2 · 04:35M. Potapov—81141162I. Fashchevskyi—116117113
WAug 20 · 23:15M. Potapov—11118113I. Fashchevskyi—571151
LAug 12 · 07:35M. Potapov—611691I. Fashchevskyi—11311113
LJul 31 · 14:55M. Potapov—11710101I. Fashchevskyi—91112123
LJul 25 · 04:25M. Potapov—71181182I. Fashchevskyi—117114113
WJul 24 · 13:25M. Potapov—11116113I. Fashchevskyi—571181
LJul 23 · 21:15M. Potapov—661191I. Fashchevskyi—11118113
LJul 8 · 16:55M. Potapov—711911102I. Fashchevskyi—117117123
M. Potapov10
WSep 9 · 09:35M. Potapov2.20911115113I. Pytsko1.6111691152LSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50118961WSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113WSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770WSep 8 · 16:05M. Potapov2.10115711113I. Pytsko1.6781111772WSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.25411571O. Storozhenko1.5711611113LSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2.001111113M. Potapov1.735890LSep 8 · 01:45M. Potapov2.106880I. Pytsko1.671111113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 9 · 06:35I. Pytsko1.731211125133I. Fashchevskyi2.001471011112LSep 9 · 04:35D. Maltsev1.80671114113I. Fashchevskyi1.91111151212WSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2.001111113M. Potapov1.735890LSep 8 · 01:15V. Korobko1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007850WSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev1.67411971I. Fashchevskyi2.1011811113LSep 7 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi1.91611116102I. Pytsko1.80119611123LSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko1.57811811113I. Fashchevskyi2.2511711972LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133
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