TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094686
Played Sep 8Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117117––––
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 18–18 Denys Maltsev Dead even across their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-18 in 36
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1542 vs Maltsev 1491
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Maltsev 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 60% vs Maltsev 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +2 · Maltsev -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.83 / Maltsev 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Potapov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13094686
Potapov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Maltsev1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov5wins
AwayMaltsev5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov57.1%4 of 7
AwayMaltsev66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov7Maltsev3n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S2Potapov8Maltsev2n = 10Potapov took 8 of 10
S3Potapov3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S4Potapov2Maltsev7n = 9Maltsev took 7 of 9
S5Potapov3Maltsev3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovMaltsevP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.641.5+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 426 vs 450 / 88347.2%51%201 / 426 vs 450 / 883Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.83/Maltsev 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 21:45M. Potapov—1110111092D. Maltsev—812812113
WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov—1111118113D. Maltsev—13971172
WSep 4 · 13:25M. Potapov—111179113D. Maltsev—84111182
WSep 1 · 12:05M. Potapov—11119113D. Maltsev—871161
LAug 20 · 21:45M. Potapov—711121242D. Maltsev—1151410113
LAug 17 · 23:30M. Potapov—1198121D. Maltsev—71111143
WAug 12 · 04:35M. Potapov—1111410113D. Maltsev—64111282
WJul 31 · 11:55M. Potapov—1111113D. Maltsev—7790
LJun 27 · 09:25M. Potapov—11118772D. Maltsev—571111113
LJun 13 · 04:55M. Potapov—711681D. Maltsev—11711113
M. Potapov10
WSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113WSep 8 · 16:05M. Potapov2.10115711113I. Pytsko1.6781111772WSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.25411571O. Storozhenko1.5711611113LSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2.001111113M. Potapov1.735890LSep 8 · 01:45M. Potapov2.106880I. Pytsko1.671111113WSep 7 · 23:45O. Storozhenko1.5081151182M. Potapov2.50114114113LSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092WSep 7 · 20:45V. Korobko4.3371141352M. Potapov1.201171111113WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970
D. Maltsev10
LSep 8 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi1.7311111010113D. Maltsev2.0068121282LSep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.204111281I. Pytsko1.6111514113WSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113WSep 8 · 02:15D. Maltsev1.25119411113V. Korobko3.7541111862LSep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83711911112O. Storozhenko1.83117114133LSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev1.67411971I. Fashchevskyi2.1011811113WSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092LSep 7 · 20:15D. Maltsev1.83114134172I. Pytsko1.839111111193WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Potapov
Nothing scheduled
D. Maltsev
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