TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094717
Played Sep 8Finished
Vasyl Moshovskyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11611810121012118
Denys Maltsev
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVasyl Moshovskyi to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Moshovskyi above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vasyl Moshovskyi at 54.1%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moshovskyi 27–16 Denys Maltsev Denys Maltsev has won 16 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moshovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-16 in 43
Moshovskyi
Correct
gap of 11 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moshovskyi 1531 vs Maltsev 1501
Moshovskyi
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Maltsev 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Maltsev 60%
Maltsev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moshovskyi +1 · Maltsev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moshovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moshovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoshovskyi 1.73 / Maltsev 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moshovskyi)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13094717
Moshovskyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it69% 43 of 62
Maltsev2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 92 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoshovskyi4wins
AwayMaltsev6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoshovskyi75%3 of 4
AwayMaltsev83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moshovskyi4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S2Moshovskyi4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S3Moshovskyi5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S4Moshovskyi4Maltsev4n = 8split evenly
S5Moshovskyi1Maltsev2n = 3Maltsev took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoshovskyiMaltsevMoshovskyi − MaltsevBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.240.0−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoshovskyiMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 327 vs 450 / 88255.4%51%181 / 327 vs 450 / 882Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoshovskyiMoshovskyi 1.73/Maltsev 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moshovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moshovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 16:05V. Moshovskyi—137117102D. Maltsev—1111611123
LAug 28 · 22:15V. Moshovskyi—610111282D. Maltsev—1112310113
WAug 26 · 06:35V. Moshovskyi—11117113D. Maltsev—961151
LAug 19 · 10:05V. Moshovskyi—101370D. Maltsev—1215113
LAug 8 · 06:25V. Moshovskyi—481171D. Maltsev—11112113
WAug 4 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi—11168143D. Maltsev—91411121
LAug 3 · 23:00V. Moshovskyi—1011431D. Maltsev—12511113
LJul 20 · 21:30V. Moshovskyi—8150D. Maltsev—1111113
WJul 17 · 21:15V. Moshovskyi—12611113D. Maltsev—1011781
WJul 15 · 09:05V. Moshovskyi—711116113D. Maltsev—11871172
V. Moshovskyi10
LSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113LSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113WSep 8 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi2.10121011123O. Storozhenko1.6710126101LSep 8 · 12:05V. Moshovskyi2.25111110992I. Pytsko1.57891211113WSep 1 · 18:05M. Potapov1.578670V. Moshovskyi2.251111113LSep 1 · 17:05V. Moshovskyi1.801031181M. Slozka1.9112114113LSep 1 · 16:05V. Moshovskyi1.67137117102D. Maltsev2.101111611123WSep 1 · 14:35V. Moshovskyi3.2511117113I. Pytsko1.33971171WSep 1 · 12:35V. Moshovskyi1.3611118113V. Dobrovolskyi3.00851131LSep 1 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.573111181V. Korobko2.2511713113
D. Maltsev10
LSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770LSep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.204111281I. Pytsko1.6111514113WSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113WSep 8 · 02:15D. Maltsev1.25119411113V. Korobko3.7541111862LSep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83711911112O. Storozhenko1.83117114133LSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev1.67411971I. Fashchevskyi2.1011811113WSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092LSep 7 · 20:15D. Maltsev1.83114134172I. Pytsko1.839111111193WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 1 · 16:05V. Moshovskyi1.67137117102D. Maltsev2.101111611123
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D. Maltsev
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