TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055564
Played Sep 1Finished
Vasyl Moshovskyi
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13117111167111012
Denys Maltsev
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeVasyl Moshovskyi to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasyl Moshovskyi above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 99 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Vasyl Moshovskyi at 56.2%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moshovskyi 27–15 Denys Maltsev Denys Maltsev has won 15 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:15What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moshovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-15 in 42
Moshovskyi
Wrong
gap of 12 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moshovskyi 1533 vs Maltsev 1527
Moshovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Maltsev 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moshovskyi 50% vs Maltsev 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moshovskyi +2 · Maltsev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Moshovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moshovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoshovskyi 1.67 / Maltsev 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Moshovskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13055564
Moshovskyi1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 42 of 60
Maltsev2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 89 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoshovskyi5wins
AwayMaltsev5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoshovskyi100%3 of 3
AwayMaltsev71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moshovskyi3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S2Moshovskyi5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S3Moshovskyi5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S4Moshovskyi5Maltsev3n = 8Moshovskyi took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoshovskyiMaltsevMoshovskyi − MaltsevBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.638.2−1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoshovskyiMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 322 vs 457 / 89155.6%51.3%179 / 322 vs 457 / 891Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoshovskyiMoshovskyi 1.67/Maltsev 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Moshovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 22:15V. Moshovskyi—610111282D. Maltsev—1112310113
WAug 26 · 06:35V. Moshovskyi—11117113D. Maltsev—961151
LAug 19 · 10:05V. Moshovskyi—101370D. Maltsev—1215113
LAug 8 · 06:25V. Moshovskyi—481171D. Maltsev—11112113
WAug 4 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi—11168143D. Maltsev—91411121
LAug 3 · 23:00V. Moshovskyi—1011431D. Maltsev—12511113
LJul 20 · 21:30V. Moshovskyi—8150D. Maltsev—1111113
WJul 17 · 21:15V. Moshovskyi—12611113D. Maltsev—1011781
WJul 15 · 09:05V. Moshovskyi—711116113D. Maltsev—11871172
WJul 10 · 21:45V. Moshovskyi—91111113D. Maltsev—118771
V. Moshovskyi10
WSep 1 · 18:05M. Potapov1.578670V. Moshovskyi2.251111113LSep 1 · 17:05V. Moshovskyi1.801031181M. Slozka1.9112114113WSep 1 · 14:35V. Moshovskyi3.2511117113I. Pytsko1.33971171WSep 1 · 12:35V. Moshovskyi1.3611118113V. Dobrovolskyi3.00851131LSep 1 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.573111181V. Korobko2.2511713113LSep 1 · 24:30V. Moshovskyi2.758770I. Pytsko1.401111113LAug 31 · 23:00V. Moshovskyi2.20817971M. Potapov1.61111511113LAug 31 · 21:30V. Moshovskyi1.83124911122M. Slozka1.831011118143WAug 31 · 20:00V. Moshovskyi1.281111148113V. Dobrovolskyi3.50136121142WAug 29 · 03:15V. Moshovskyi2.0012117113O. Storozhenko1.731061161
D. Maltsev10
WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113
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