TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13051378
Played Aug 31Finished
Vasyl Moshovskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111715911711––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:15 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Moshovskyi above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 89 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 58.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moshovskyi 2–4 Mykhailo Potapov Vasyl Moshovskyi has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Potapov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Potapov
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moshovskyi 1552 vs Potapov 1531
Moshovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moshovskyi 60% vs Potapov 40%
Moshovskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moshovskyi -1 · Potapov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoshovskyi 2.20 / Potapov 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Potapov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13051378
Moshovskyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 46 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back32% 17 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 31
Potapov1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 35 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it81% 29 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMoshovskyi2wins
AwayPotapov4wins
Potapov leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoshovskyi33.3%1 of 3
AwayPotapov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moshovskyi3Potapov3n = 6split evenly
S2Moshovskyi3Potapov3n = 6split evenly
S3Moshovskyi2Potapov4n = 6Potapov took 4 of 6
S4Moshovskyi2Potapov4n = 6Potapov took 4 of 6
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away467%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMoshovskyiPotapovM − PBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.036.8−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoshovskyiPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 317 vs 183 / 39555.8%46.3%177 / 317 vs 183 / 395Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovMoshovskyi 2.20/Potapov 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 10 · 20:00V. Moshovskyi—811791M. Potapov—11611113
WFeb 11 · 11:55V. Moshovskyi—11611113M. Potapov—911961
LJan 23 · 17:25V. Moshovskyi—118871M. Potapov—61111113
LJan 20 · 23:30V. Moshovskyi—811581M. Potapov—11511113
LJan 15 · 10:35V. Moshovskyi—115881M. Potapov—81111113
WJan 14 · 17:35V. Moshovskyi—111111113M. Potapov—133671
V. Moshovskyi10
WSep 1 · 18:05M. Potapov1.578670V. Moshovskyi2.251111113LSep 1 · 17:05V. Moshovskyi1.801031181M. Slozka1.9112114113LSep 1 · 16:05V. Moshovskyi1.67137117102D. Maltsev2.101111611123WSep 1 · 14:35V. Moshovskyi3.2511117113I. Pytsko1.33971171WSep 1 · 12:35V. Moshovskyi1.3611118113V. Dobrovolskyi3.00851131LSep 1 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.573111181V. Korobko2.2511713113LSep 1 · 24:30V. Moshovskyi2.758770I. Pytsko1.401111113LAug 31 · 21:30V. Moshovskyi1.83124911122M. Slozka1.831011118143WAug 31 · 20:00V. Moshovskyi1.281111148113V. Dobrovolskyi3.50136121142WAug 29 · 03:15V. Moshovskyi2.0012117113O. Storozhenko1.731061161
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 1 · 18:05M. Potapov1.578670V. Moshovskyi2.251111113
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