TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13051359
Played Aug 31Finished
Vasyl Moshovskyi
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131161412811114
Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:04 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeVasyl Moshovskyi to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Moshovskyi above · Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 101 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Vasyl Moshovskyi at 75.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moshovskyi 4–0 Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Moshovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Moshovskyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moshovskyi 1556 vs Dobrovolskyi 1418
Moshovskyi
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Dobrovolskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moshovskyi 50% vs Dobrovolskyi 30%
Moshovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moshovskyi +1 · Dobrovolskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Moshovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobrovolskyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoshovskyi 1.28 / Dobrovolskyi 3.50
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Moshovskyi)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13051359
Moshovskyi1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 66 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it71% 42 of 59
Dobrovolskyi3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 48 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back21% 21 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMoshovskyi4wins
AwayDobrovolskyi0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderMoshovskyi leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoshovskyi100%3 of 3
AwayDobrovolskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moshovskyi3Dobrovolskyi1n = 4Moshovskyi took 3 of 4
S2Moshovskyi3Dobrovolskyi1n = 4Moshovskyi took 3 of 4
S3Moshovskyi3Dobrovolskyi1n = 4Moshovskyi took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMoshovskyiDobrovolskyiM − DBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.231.5+10.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoshovskyiDobrovolskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 315 vs 201 / 41455.9%48.6%176 / 315 vs 201 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.935.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoshovskyiMoshovskyi 1.28/Dobrovolskyi 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Moshovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moshovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJan 1 · 17:25V. Moshovskyi—1111133V. Dobrovolskyi—53110
WDec 18 · 06:25V. Moshovskyi—671111113V. Dobrovolskyi—11116522
WDec 17 · 17:25V. Moshovskyi—1212910113V. Dobrovolskyi—1010111242
WDec 10 · 17:25V. Moshovskyi—1111123V. Dobrovolskyi—87100
V. Moshovskyi10
WSep 1 · 18:05M. Potapov1.578670V. Moshovskyi2.251111113LSep 1 · 17:05V. Moshovskyi1.801031181M. Slozka1.9112114113LSep 1 · 16:05V. Moshovskyi1.67137117102D. Maltsev2.101111611123WSep 1 · 14:35V. Moshovskyi3.2511117113I. Pytsko1.33971171WSep 1 · 12:35V. Moshovskyi1.3611118113V. Dobrovolskyi3.00851131LSep 1 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.573111181V. Korobko2.2511713113LSep 1 · 24:30V. Moshovskyi2.758770I. Pytsko1.401111113LAug 31 · 23:00V. Moshovskyi2.20817971M. Potapov1.61111511113LAug 31 · 21:30V. Moshovskyi1.83124911122M. Slozka1.831011118143WAug 29 · 03:15V. Moshovskyi2.0012117113O. Storozhenko1.731061161
V. Dobrovolskyi10
LSep 1 · 19:05M. Slozka1.30121011113V. Dobrovolskyi3.401012381LSep 1 · 17:35V. Dobrovolskyi3.2511156732D. Maltsev1.335131111113LSep 1 · 15:35I. Pytsko1.2211119113V. Dobrovolskyi4.00771171LSep 1 · 13:35M. Potapov1.281111113V. Dobrovolskyi3.505460LSep 1 · 12:35V. Moshovskyi1.3611118113V. Dobrovolskyi3.00851131LSep 1 · 02:30I. Pytsko1.251171113113V. Dobrovolskyi3.7581181582LSep 1 · 01:30M. Slozka1.361111113V. Dobrovolskyi3.005510LSep 1 · 24:00V. Korobko1.831111113V. Dobrovolskyi1.836560LAug 31 · 22:00M. Potapov1.401111113V. Dobrovolskyi2.756940WAug 29 · 10:25V. Kuzmych1.83661181V. Dobrovolskyi1.8311117113
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