TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055432
Played Sep 1Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611711––––
Vasyl Moshovskyi
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Vasyl Moshovskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 56.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 5–2 Vasyl Moshovskyi Vasyl Moshovskyi has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1595 vs Moshovskyi 1510
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 80% vs Moshovskyi 40%
Potapov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 80% vs Moshovskyi 40%
Potapov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -1 · Moshovskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Potapov) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.57 / Moshovskyi 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Potapov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13055432
Potapov1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite55% won 39 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it83% 33 of 40
Moshovskyi2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 46 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back31% 17 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePotapov5wins
AwayMoshovskyi2wins
Potapov leads 5–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov75%3 of 4
AwayMoshovskyi33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov4Moshovskyi3n = 7Potapov took 4 of 7
S2Potapov3Moshovskyi4n = 7Moshovskyi took 4 of 7
S3Potapov5Moshovskyi2n = 7Potapov took 5 of 7
S4Potapov5Moshovskyi2n = 7Potapov took 5 of 7
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home571%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricPotapovMoshovskyiP − MBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match38.436.7+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovMoshovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 397 vs 179 / 32446.9%55.3%186 / 397 vs 179 / 324Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.57/Moshovskyi 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moshovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 31 · 23:00M. Potapov—111511113V. Moshovskyi—817971
WAug 10 · 20:00M. Potapov—11611113V. Moshovskyi—811791
LFeb 11 · 11:55M. Potapov—911961V. Moshovskyi—11611113
WJan 23 · 17:25M. Potapov—61111113V. Moshovskyi—118871
WJan 20 · 23:30M. Potapov—11511113V. Moshovskyi—811581
WJan 15 · 10:35M. Potapov—81111113V. Moshovskyi—115881
LJan 14 · 17:35M. Potapov—133671V. Moshovskyi—111111113
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152
V. Moshovskyi10
LSep 1 · 17:05V. Moshovskyi1.801031181M. Slozka1.9112114113LSep 1 · 16:05V. Moshovskyi1.67137117102D. Maltsev2.101111611123WSep 1 · 14:35V. Moshovskyi3.2511117113I. Pytsko1.33971171WSep 1 · 12:35V. Moshovskyi1.3611118113V. Dobrovolskyi3.00851131LSep 1 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.573111181V. Korobko2.2511713113LSep 1 · 24:30V. Moshovskyi2.758770I. Pytsko1.401111113LAug 31 · 23:00V. Moshovskyi2.20817971M. Potapov1.61111511113LAug 31 · 21:30V. Moshovskyi1.83124911122M. Slozka1.831011118143WAug 31 · 20:00V. Moshovskyi1.281111148113V. Dobrovolskyi3.50136121142WAug 29 · 03:15V. Moshovskyi2.0012117113O. Storozhenko1.731061161
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