TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100602
Played Sep 9Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1197116111012––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 45–28 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 28 of their 73 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-28 in 73
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 17 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1577 vs Tebenko 1622
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 100% vs Tebenko 80%
Potapov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 60% vs Tebenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +5 · Tebenko +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.73 / Tebenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Potapov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13100602
Potapov1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 52 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it87% 45 of 52
Tebenko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 130 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back32% 46 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov6wins
AwayTebenko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPotapov leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov100%5 of 5
AwayTebenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Potapov5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Potapov7Tebenko3n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S4Potapov5Tebenko2n = 7Potapov took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovTebenkoP − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.032.9+4.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 424 vs 396 / 82447.6%48.1%202 / 424 vs 396 / 824Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.73/Tebenko 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.1%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov—1311113Y. Tebenko—11720
WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov—1112113Y. Tebenko—61050
LSep 4 · 15:25M. Potapov—66111162Y. Tebenko—111147113
LSep 3 · 22:15M. Potapov—111070Y. Tebenko—1312113
WSep 2 · 11:05M. Potapov—11118113Y. Tebenko—541161
LAug 21 · 24:45M. Potapov—991121Y. Tebenko—11117113
LAug 12 · 09:05M. Potapov—4111081Y. Tebenko—11712113
WAug 11 · 02:30M. Potapov—111011113Y. Tebenko—912561
WJul 9 · 22:45M. Potapov—71111113Y. Tebenko—118781
WMay 22 · 02:15M. Potapov—111211113Y. Tebenko—614871
M. Potapov10
WSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50118961WSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113WSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770WSep 8 · 16:05M. Potapov2.10115711113I. Pytsko1.6781111772WSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.25411571O. Storozhenko1.5711611113LSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2.001111113M. Potapov1.735890LSep 8 · 01:45M. Potapov2.106880I. Pytsko1.671111113WSep 7 · 23:45O. Storozhenko1.5081151182M. Potapov2.50114114113LSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 9 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.001211113I. Pytsko1.7310450WSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko2.001111163I. Pytsko1.7378140WSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113WSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko2.1081111113O. Storozhenko1.67117991LSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472
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