TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100492
Played Sep 9Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811118119116––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 63.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 8–18 Oleksandr Storozhenko Mykhailo Potapov has won 8 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Storozhenko beat Potapov 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-18 in 26
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 10 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1564 vs Storozhenko 1610
Storozhenko
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 80% vs Storozhenko 60%
Potapov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 60% vs Storozhenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +4 · Storozhenko +2
Potapov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.50 / Storozhenko 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Storozhenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100492
Potapov2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 48 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Storozhenko1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 160 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it87% 58 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it69% 102 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov4wins
AwayStorozhenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov80%4 of 5
AwayStorozhenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Potapov4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S3Potapov5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Potapov4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.039.5−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 428 vs 250 / 47947.4%52.2%203 / 428 vs 250 / 479Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoPotapov 2.50/Storozhenko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov—411571O. Storozhenko—11611113
WSep 7 · 23:45M. Potapov—114114113O. Storozhenko—81151182
LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov—511561O. Storozhenko—11711113
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov—13115113O. Storozhenko—1191151
LSep 3 · 20:15M. Potapov—115891O. Storozhenko—61111113
LAug 20 · 20:15M. Potapov—7101151O. Storozhenko—11126113
WAug 17 · 21:00M. Potapov—15611133O. Storozhenko—13118111
WAug 12 · 06:05M. Potapov—111511113O. Storozhenko—817741
LAug 11 · 01:30M. Potapov—77111162O. Storozhenko—111122113
LJul 31 · 13:25M. Potapov—911771O. Storozhenko—11911113
M. Potapov10
WSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113WSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770WSep 8 · 16:05M. Potapov2.10115711113I. Pytsko1.6781111772WSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.25411571O. Storozhenko1.5711611113LSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2.001111113M. Potapov1.735890LSep 8 · 01:45M. Potapov2.106880I. Pytsko1.671111113WSep 7 · 23:45O. Storozhenko1.5081151182M. Potapov2.50114114113LSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092WSep 7 · 20:45V. Korobko4.3371141352M. Potapov1.201171111113
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev2.007750O. Storozhenko1.731111113WSep 8 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.571111711113I. Pytsko2.2588111382LSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko2.1081111113O. Storozhenko1.67117991LSep 8 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi2.10121011123O. Storozhenko1.6710126101WSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.25411571O. Storozhenko1.5711611113WSep 8 · 02:45O. Storozhenko1.6111114113I. Pytsko2.20381151WSep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83711911112O. Storozhenko1.83117114133LSep 7 · 23:45O. Storozhenko1.5081151182M. Potapov2.50114114113WSep 7 · 22:45V. Korobko1.9171111592O. Storozhenko1.80113711113WSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko1.57811811113I. Fashchevskyi2.2511711972
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