TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100475
Played Sep 9Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6117111151412111
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 89 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 25–26 Ivan Fashchevskyi Denys Maltsev has won 25 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maltsev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-26 in 51
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1463 vs Fashchevskyi 1443
Maltsev
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 20% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 30% vs Fashchevskyi 50%
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -4 · Fashchevskyi +1
Maltsev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.80 / Fashchevskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maltsev)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100475
Maltsev1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 116 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it87% 75 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it74% 93 of 125
Fashchevskyi1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 88 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back27% 26 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev6wins
AwayFashchevskyi4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev100%5 of 5
AwayFashchevskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Maltsev7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S3Maltsev6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S4Maltsev4Fashchevskyi3n = 7Maltsev took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevFashchevskyiM − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.934.9+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 885 vs 281 / 55450.9%50.7%450 / 885 vs 281 / 554Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevMaltsev 1.80/Fashchevskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev—411971I. Fashchevskyi—11811113
WAug 31 · 10:05D. Maltsev—13611113I. Fashchevskyi—1111281
WAug 30 · 01:30D. Maltsev—11811113I. Fashchevskyi—811591
LAug 28 · 20:15D. Maltsev—81114582I. Fashchevskyi—1181211113
LAug 26 · 04:35D. Maltsev—8550I. Fashchevskyi—1111113
WAug 25 · 13:05D. Maltsev—1111113I. Fashchevskyi—3960
LAug 25 · 03:00D. Maltsev—10121581I. Fashchevskyi—121017113
WAug 21 · 03:15D. Maltsev—11118113I. Fashchevskyi—861121
WAug 19 · 06:35D. Maltsev—71111113I. Fashchevskyi—119791
WAug 14 · 21:30D. Maltsev—1111113I. Fashchevskyi—9980
D. Maltsev10
LSep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev2.007750O. Storozhenko1.731111113LSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770LSep 8 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi1.7311111010113D. Maltsev2.0068121282LSep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.204111281I. Pytsko1.6111514113WSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113WSep 8 · 02:15D. Maltsev1.25119411113V. Korobko3.7541111862LSep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83711911112O. Storozhenko1.83117114133LSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev1.67411971I. Fashchevskyi2.1011811113WSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092LSep 7 · 20:15D. Maltsev1.83114134172I. Pytsko1.839111111193
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2.001111113M. Potapov1.735890LSep 8 · 01:15V. Korobko1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007850WSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev1.67411971I. Fashchevskyi2.1011811113LSep 7 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi1.91611116102I. Pytsko1.80119611123LSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko1.57811811113I. Fashchevskyi2.2511711972LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133WSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych1.834930I. Fashchevskyi1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi1.73111011113O. Sydorchuk2.00412991
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