TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100533
Played Sep 9Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511115811711––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 44–55 Yaroslav Tebenko Denys Maltsev has won 44 of their 99 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-55 in 99
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1468 vs Tebenko 1645
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 40% vs Tebenko 100%
Tebenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 40% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -1 · Tebenko +5
Tebenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.91 / Tebenko 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Tebenko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100533
Maltsev1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 93 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Tebenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 77 of 140
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it77% 48 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev5wins
AwayTebenko5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev40%2 of 5
AwayTebenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Maltsev4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Maltsev9Tebenko1n = 10Maltsev took 9 of 10
S4Maltsev4Tebenko5n = 9Tebenko took 5 of 9
S5Maltsev3Tebenko5n = 8Tebenko took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevTebenkoM − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.643.2+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 888 vs 398 / 82650.9%48.2%452 / 888 vs 398 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoMaltsev 1.91/Tebenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 13:05D. Maltsev—1151110113Y. Tebenko—41151292
WSep 6 · 02:30D. Maltsev—1111113Y. Tebenko—8220
LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev—1012129152Y. Tebenko—12101011173
LAug 31 · 08:05D. Maltsev—11811922Y. Tebenko—911611113
WAug 29 · 02:45D. Maltsev—21111113Y. Tebenko—117981
WAug 26 · 11:05D. Maltsev—611115113Y. Tebenko—11561192
LAug 25 · 14:35D. Maltsev—98111162Y. Tebenko—111189113
WAug 24 · 23:30D. Maltsev—881111113Y. Tebenko—11119882
LAug 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev—1111115102Y. Tebenko—413411123
LAug 19 · 11:05D. Maltsev—111051272Y. Tebenko—9121110113
D. Maltsev10
LSep 9 · 07:35D. Maltsev2.25411861I. Pytsko1.5711811113WSep 9 · 06:05D. Maltsev2.10135411113O. Storozhenko1.67111111972WSep 9 · 04:35D. Maltsev1.80671114113I. Fashchevskyi1.91111151212LSep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev2.007750O. Storozhenko1.731111113LSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770LSep 8 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi1.7311111010113D. Maltsev2.0068121282LSep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.204111281I. Pytsko1.6111514113WSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113WSep 8 · 02:15D. Maltsev1.25119411113V. Korobko3.7541111862LSep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83711911112O. Storozhenko1.83117114133
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 9 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.001111113O. Storozhenko1.738980WSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.001211113I. Pytsko1.7310450WSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko2.001111163I. Pytsko1.7378140WSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113WSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko2.1081111113O. Storozhenko1.67117991LSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.801311113Y. Tebenko1.9111720LSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko1.7341151292D. Maltsev2.001151110113LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050
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