TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111025
Played Sep 12Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811211118119119
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 45–29 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 29 of their 74 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:03What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Potapov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-29 in 74
Potapov
Correct
gap of 16 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1542 vs Tebenko 1642
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Tebenko 80%
Tebenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -1 · Tebenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.80 / Tebenko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Potapov)-5.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13111025
Potapov1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 52 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it85% 45 of 53
Tebenko1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 133 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back32% 47 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov5wins
AwayTebenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov80%4 of 5
AwayTebenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Potapov5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Potapov6Tebenko4n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S4Potapov4Tebenko3n = 7Potapov took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovTebenkoP − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.933.7+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 432 vs 397 / 82247.5%48.3%205 / 432 vs 397 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.80/Tebenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov—1176101Y. Tebenko—91111123
WSep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov—1311113Y. Tebenko—11720
WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov—1112113Y. Tebenko—61050
LSep 4 · 15:25M. Potapov—66111162Y. Tebenko—111147113
LSep 3 · 22:15M. Potapov—111070Y. Tebenko—1312113
WSep 2 · 11:05M. Potapov—11118113Y. Tebenko—541161
LAug 21 · 24:45M. Potapov—991121Y. Tebenko—11117113
LAug 12 · 09:05M. Potapov—4111081Y. Tebenko—11712113
WAug 11 · 02:30M. Potapov—111011113Y. Tebenko—912561
WJul 9 · 22:45M. Potapov—71111113Y. Tebenko—118781
M. Potapov10
LSep 12 · 24:45M. Potapov1.25115541V. Korobko3.7581111113WSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov2.25711971O. Storozhenko1.5711511113LSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113WSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113WSep 9 · 09:35M. Potapov2.20911115113I. Pytsko1.6111691152LSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113LSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50118961WSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko2.007570I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 11 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.738750V. Korobko2.001111113WSep 11 · 20:45Y. Tebenko1.9111513113O. Storozhenko1.807111181WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100WSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113WSep 9 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.001111113O. Storozhenko1.738980WSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.001211113I. Pytsko1.7310450WSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko2.001111163I. Pytsko1.7378140
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