TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111105
Played Sep 12Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118511511411––
Volodymyr Korobko
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Volodymyr Korobko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 66 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 79.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 17–6 Volodymyr Korobko Volodymyr Korobko has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-6 in 23
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1556 vs Korobko 1464
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 60% vs Korobko 40%
Potapov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 60% vs Korobko 20%
Potapov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +1 · Korobko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korobko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.25 / Korobko 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Potapov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111105
Potapov1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 52 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it85% 45 of 53
Korobko3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 39 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov10wins
AwayKorobko0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPotapov leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov100%10 of 10
AwayKorobkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov10Korobko0n = 10Potapov took 10 of 10
S2Potapov8Korobko2n = 10Potapov took 8 of 10
S3Potapov9Korobko1n = 10Potapov took 9 of 10
S4Potapov2Korobko1n = 3Potapov took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovKorobkoP − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match37.122.9+14.2per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovKorobkoBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 431 vs 212 / 47047.6%45.1%205 / 431 vs 212 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.634.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.25/Korobko 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Korobko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 20:45M. Potapov—1171111113V. Korobko—71141352
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov—1111113V. Korobko—5970
WSep 4 · 24:15M. Potapov—11149113V. Korobko—4121131
WSep 1 · 01:00M. Potapov—11811113V. Korobko—711921
WAug 21 · 02:15M. Potapov—1111113V. Korobko—9830
WAug 18 · 24:30M. Potapov—1111133V. Korobko—83110
WAug 11 · 24:00M. Potapov—1111123V. Korobko—86100
WJul 23 · 22:45M. Potapov—1111113V. Korobko—4530
WMar 17 · 24:00M. Potapov—1111113V. Korobko—8450
WDec 21 · 21:00M. Potapov—1111113V. Korobko—8240
M. Potapov10
WSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov2.25711971O. Storozhenko1.5711511113LSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113WSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113WSep 9 · 09:35M. Potapov2.20911115113I. Pytsko1.6111691152LSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113LSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50118961WSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113WSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770
V. Korobko10
LSep 11 · 23:45V. Korobko1.8375111172O. Storozhenko1.83111178113WSep 11 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.738750V. Korobko2.001111113LSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113LSep 8 · 02:15D. Maltsev1.25119411113V. Korobko3.7541111862WSep 8 · 01:15V. Korobko1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007850LSep 8 · 24:15V. Korobko2.00991111112I. Pytsko1.73111175133LSep 7 · 22:45V. Korobko1.9171111592O. Storozhenko1.80113711113LSep 7 · 20:45V. Korobko4.3371141352M. Potapov1.201171111113LSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970LSep 6 · 01:00V. Korobko2.2061060M. Khomenko1.611112113
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