TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116990
Played Sep 12Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114117––––
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 32–28 Yurii Parahailo Yurii Parahailo has won 28 of their 60 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Parahailo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-28 in 60
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1628 vs Parahailo 1634
Parahailo
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 40% vs Parahailo 100%
Parahailo
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 70% vs Parahailo 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko -1 · Parahailo +5
Parahailo
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Parahailo) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.83 / Parahailo 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Parahailo)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116990
Tebenko1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Parahailo1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko5wins
AwayParahailo5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko100%4 of 4
AwayParahailo83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S3Tebenko6Parahailo4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko4Parahailo3n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoParahailoT − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.935.2−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime397 / 823 vs 410 / 82148.2%49.9%397 / 823 vs 410 / 821Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoTebenko 1.83/Parahailo 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 07:05Y. Tebenko4111118113Y. Parahailo31691151
LAug 19 · 09:05Y. Tebenko46411119112Y. Parahailo48115811133
WAug 18 · 18:35Y. Tebenko4111118113Y. Parahailo30651181
LAug 15 · 24:00Y. Tebenko23541131Y. Parahailo3911116113
WAug 12 · 07:05Y. Tebenko48111412113Y. Parahailo405161091
LAug 10 · 21:00Y. Tebenko229760Y. Parahailo331111113
LAug 8 · 08:55Y. Tebenko32991131Y. Parahailo4111118113
WAug 5 · 09:05Y. Tebenko341112113Y. Parahailo2361070
WAug 4 · 15:35Y. Tebenko4291111113Y. Parahailo34117971
LAug 3 · 23:30Y. Tebenko207670Y. Parahailo331111113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992WSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko2.007570I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 11 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.738750V. Korobko2.001111113WSep 11 · 20:45Y. Tebenko1.9111513113O. Storozhenko1.807111181WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100WSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113WSep 9 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.001111113O. Storozhenko1.738980WSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.001211113I. Pytsko1.7310450
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101
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