TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116668
Played Sep 12Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
91151145––––
Andrii Droshchynskyi
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Andrii Droshchynskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-5
Point 45 set 3, 4-5 — our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 73.2%
45 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 1–6 Andrii Droshchynskyi Valerii Merzlikin has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Droshchynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Droshchynskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1490 vs Droshchynskyi 1699
Droshchynskyi
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Droshchynskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 30% vs Droshchynskyi 60%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Droshchynskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Droshchynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 3.40 / Droshchynskyi 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116668
Merzlikin3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Droshchynskyi1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 71 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it73% 56 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMerzlikin1wins
AwayDroshchynskyi6wins
Droshchynskyi leads 6–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDroshchynskyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin2Droshchynskyi5n = 7Droshchynskyi took 5 of 7
S2Merzlikin2Droshchynskyi5n = 7Droshchynskyi took 5 of 7
S3Merzlikin3Droshchynskyi4n = 7Droshchynskyi took 4 of 7
S4Merzlikin0Droshchynskyi4n = 4Droshchynskyi took 4 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMerzlikinDroshchynskyiM − DBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match30.436.1−5.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinDroshchynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 608 vs 118 / 20644.7%57.3%272 / 608 vs 118 / 206Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiMerzlikin 3.40/Droshchynskyi 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Droshchynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 22 · 12:40V. Merzlikin217860A. Droshchynskyi331111113
LAug 13 · 15:10V. Merzlikin28101080A. Droshchynskyi351212113
LAug 8 · 15:10V. Merzlikin30751171A. Droshchynskyi4111118113
LApr 5 · 11:30V. Merzlikin381310691A. Droshchynskyi45111211113
LMar 26 · 16:10V. Merzlikin29771141A. Droshchynskyi4111118113
LMar 15 · 13:05V. Merzlikin341011491A. Droshchynskyi4312911113
WFeb 22 · 08:00V. Merzlikin331111113A. Droshchynskyi156720
V. Merzlikin10
WSep 12 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.8341191183V. Maksuta1.8311911972LSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.53116971M. Tiutiunnyk2.3891111113LSep 12 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.8010580Y. Holoborodko1.911211113LSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113WSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113LSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113LSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841
A. Droshchynskyi10
LSep 12 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.73119911113A. Droshchynskyi2.0061111982WSep 12 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi2.751111113V. Maksuta1.404490WSep 12 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk3.258280A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113LSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113LSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 07:00O. Kuzyshyn1.61761141A. Droshchynskyi2.2011115113WSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114103A. Droshchynskyi2.20731121WSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142
Upcoming Matches
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A. Droshchynskyi
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