TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100696
Played Sep 9Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012113811117611
Yurii Bondarenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Yurii Bondarenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 1–1 Yurii Bondarenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1517 vs Bondarenko 1621
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Bondarenko 60%
Bondarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Bondarenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Bondarenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Bondarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.00 / Bondarenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Bondarenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100696
Merzlikin2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 37 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Bondarenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 16 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMerzlikin1wins
AwayBondarenko1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMerzlikinBondarenkoM − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.537.50.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinBondarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 604 vs 52 / 9844.9%53.1%271 / 604 vs 52 / 98Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoMerzlikin 2.00/Bondarenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LFeb 22 · 11:30V. Merzlikin—118481Y. Bondarenko—21111113
WOct 12 · 09:00V. Merzlikin—116114123Y. Bondarenko—611211102
V. Merzlikin10
WSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113LSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113LSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 9 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko1.8011137113M. Tiutiunnyk1.917111171LSep 9 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.739890O. Nadporozhskyi2.001111113WSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730LSep 9 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.008116111Y. Holoborodko1.7311911133WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172
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