TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100665
Played Sep 9Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210118411811711
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 54.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 10–12 Yevhenii Holoborodko Valerii Merzlikin has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Merzlikin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Holoborodko
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1517 vs Holoborodko 1572
Holoborodko
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Holoborodko 60%
Holoborodko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Holoborodko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -1 · Holoborodko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Merzlikin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.73 / Holoborodko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Merzlikin)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100665
Merzlikin1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 19 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it65% 11 of 17
Holoborodko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 68 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back26% 32 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin5wins
AwayHoloborodko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin71.4%5 of 7
AwayHoloborodko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin7Holoborodko3n = 10Merzlikin took 7 of 10
S2Merzlikin4Holoborodko6n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S3Merzlikin5Holoborodko5n = 10split evenly
S4Merzlikin4Holoborodko3n = 7Merzlikin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinHoloborodkoM − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.436.3+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 602 vs 318 / 61144.9%52.1%270 / 602 vs 318 / 611Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.73/Holoborodko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin—12816113Y. Holoborodko—10111471
LAug 27 · 16:10V. Merzlikin—8117101Y. Holoborodko—11911123
WAug 22 · 17:40V. Merzlikin—1315113Y. Holoborodko—111380
LAug 19 · 11:10V. Merzlikin—13671162Y. Holoborodko—1111119113
WAug 15 · 13:40V. Merzlikin—11511113Y. Holoborodko—711771
LAug 12 · 12:40V. Merzlikin—87110Y. Holoborodko—1111133
WAug 8 · 14:10V. Merzlikin—1111113Y. Holoborodko—7590
LJun 20 · 15:40V. Merzlikin—1141051Y. Holoborodko—31112113
WApr 3 · 12:20V. Merzlikin—11117113Y. Holoborodko—441171
LApr 2 · 11:10V. Merzlikin—971151Y. Holoborodko—11119113
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 9 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.008116111Y. Holoborodko1.7311911133WSep 8 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko1.3611711113O. Karpenko3.00911461LSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.91116115113Y. Holoborodko1.8091191172WSep 8 · 06:00Y. Volkov2.0012101281Y. Holoborodko1.73141210113LSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471
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