TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094694
Played Sep 8Finished
Daniil Habrelyan
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181161210––––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeDaniil Habrelyan to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniil Habrelyan above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 58 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Daniil Habrelyan at 61.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Daniil Habrelyan 16–7 Yevhenii Holoborodko Yevhenii Holoborodko has won 7 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Habrelyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-7 in 23
Habrelyan
Correct
gap of 9 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Habrelyan 1558 vs Holoborodko 1550
Habrelyan
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Habrelyan 40% vs Holoborodko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Habrelyan 60% vs Holoborodko 30%
Habrelyan
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Habrelyan -1 · Holoborodko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Habrelyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHabrelyan 1.57 / Holoborodko 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Habrelyan)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094694
Habrelyan1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Holoborodko2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog37% won 68 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back26% 32 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHabrelyan7wins
AwayHoloborodko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHabrelyan leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHabrelyan71.4%5 of 7
AwayHoloborodko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Habrelyan7Holoborodko3n = 10Habrelyan took 7 of 10
S2Habrelyan5Holoborodko5n = 10split evenly
S3Habrelyan6Holoborodko4n = 10Habrelyan took 6 of 10
S4Habrelyan1Holoborodko6n = 7Holoborodko took 6 of 7
S5Habrelyan4Holoborodko0n = 4Habrelyan took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHabrelyanHoloborodkoHabrelyan − HoloborodkoBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.6+1.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHabrelyanHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 414 vs 315 / 60647.1%52%195 / 414 vs 315 / 606Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanHabrelyan 1.57/Holoborodko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 16:10D. Habrelyan—711119113Y. Holoborodko—11651192
WSep 2 · 12:40D. Habrelyan—1111113Y. Holoborodko—9390
WAug 28 · 08:00D. Habrelyan—1111113Y. Holoborodko—9450
WAug 26 · 14:40D. Habrelyan—161157113Y. Holoborodko—147111182
LAug 19 · 17:40D. Habrelyan—1171041Y. Holoborodko—31112113
WAug 16 · 10:00D. Habrelyan—1119115113Y. Holoborodko—42141132
WAug 12 · 17:40D. Habrelyan—51311113Y. Holoborodko—1111951
LJul 11 · 14:10D. Habrelyan—12141361Y. Holoborodko—101615113
WJun 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan—1210125123Y. Holoborodko—10121011102
LJun 18 · 16:10D. Habrelyan—7510Y. Holoborodko—1111113
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113
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