TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100655
Played Sep 9Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511311711––––
Oleksii Nadporozhskyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeOleksii Nadporozhskyi to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Oleksii Nadporozhskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 48 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Oleksii Nadporozhskyi at 57.7%
48 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nadporozhskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1535 vs Nadporozhskyi 1423
Merzlikin
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Nadporozhskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Nadporozhskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Nadporozhskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Nadporozhskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.20 / Nadporozhskyi 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Nadporozhskyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100655
Merzlikin2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 37 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Nadporozhskyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinNadporozhskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 620 vs 48 / 14744.4%32.7%275 / 620 vs 48 / 147Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadporozhskyiMerzlikin 2.20/Nadporozhskyi 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Nadporozhskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nadporozhskyi won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Merzlikin10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.255520O. Zhyrnov1.571111113
O. Nadporozhskyi10
WSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091LSep 3 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn2.2081111113O. Nadporozhskyi1.61116221WSep 3 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.6111951282O. Nadporozhskyi2.204111110113LSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113WSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WAug 6 · 16:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.911111123M. Tiutiunnyk1.8078100LAug 6 · 15:10O. Nadporozhskyi2.007990M. Deineha1.731111113LAug 6 · 13:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.8312911492Y. Holoborodko1.831011411113WAug 6 · 12:10O. Nadporozhskyi1.6712911113Y. Kovshun2.101011591LAug 6 · 10:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.67711241R. Sopivnyk2.1011811113
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