TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100717
Played Sep 9Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210117––––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 60 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 56.5%
60 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 20–11 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Merzlikin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Merzlikin
Correct
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1500 vs Habrelyan 1584
Habrelyan
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 20% vs Habrelyan 60%
Habrelyan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 30% vs Habrelyan 50%
Habrelyan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -3 · Habrelyan +1
Merzlikin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Merzlikin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.57 / Habrelyan 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Merzlikin)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13100717
Merzlikin1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 19 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it65% 11 of 17
Habrelyan2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back25% 11 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin6wins
AwayHabrelyan4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin80%4 of 5
AwayHabrelyan60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin5Habrelyan5n = 10split evenly
S2Merzlikin6Habrelyan4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S3Merzlikin2Habrelyan8n = 10Habrelyan took 8 of 10
S4Merzlikin5Habrelyan2n = 7Merzlikin took 5 of 7
S5Merzlikin3Habrelyan1n = 4Merzlikin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinHabrelyanM − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.438.3−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 603 vs 194 / 41244.8%47.1%270 / 603 vs 194 / 412Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.57/Habrelyan 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 15:40V. Merzlikin—118211113D. Habrelyan—91111992
WAug 12 · 16:10V. Merzlikin—111110113D. Habrelyan—851291
WMar 29 · 07:30V. Merzlikin—811118113D. Habrelyan—11651142
WMar 28 · 16:10V. Merzlikin—811611123D. Habrelyan—119114102
WJan 7 · 14:40V. Merzlikin—1111163D. Habrelyan—87140
LDec 31 · 09:05V. Merzlikin—6470D. Habrelyan—1111113
LDec 24 · 18:00V. Merzlikin—11551182D. Habrelyan—811119113
LDec 17 · 17:40V. Merzlikin—611871D. Habrelyan—11911113
WDec 12 · 13:20V. Merzlikin—11118113D. Habrelyan—881141
LDec 10 · 12:10V. Merzlikin—8780D. Habrelyan—1111113
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113LSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113LSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120LSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730WSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150
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