TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094472
Played Sep 8Finished
Daniil Habrelyan
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
112611911117911
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniil Habrelyan above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 54.4%
88 points played in total.
H2H Daniil Habrelyan 20–38 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Daniil Habrelyan has won 20 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-38 in 58
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
gap of 18 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Habrelyan 1561 vs Tiutiunnyk 1586
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Habrelyan 60% vs Tiutiunnyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Habrelyan 60% vs Tiutiunnyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Habrelyan +1 · Tiutiunnyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Tiutiunnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHabrelyan 2.10 / Tiutiunnyk 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094472
Habrelyan2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 29 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back25% 11 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Tiutiunnyk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 60 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHabrelyan3wins
AwayTiutiunnyk7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHabrelyan33.3%2 of 6
AwayTiutiunnyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Habrelyan6Tiutiunnyk4n = 10Habrelyan took 6 of 10
S2Habrelyan3Tiutiunnyk7n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 7 of 10
S3Habrelyan5Tiutiunnyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Habrelyan3Tiutiunnyk6n = 9Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 9
S5Habrelyan2Tiutiunnyk4n = 6Tiutiunnyk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHabrelyanTiutiunnykH − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.544.6−3.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHabrelyanTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 407 vs 178 / 37546.9%47.5%191 / 407 vs 178 / 375Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykHabrelyan 2.10/Tiutiunnyk 1.67
Hit
What we said
57.4%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan—11691192M. Tiutiunnyk—211117113
LSep 3 · 17:10D. Habrelyan—12781162M. Tiutiunnyk—1011115113
WSep 2 · 16:10D. Habrelyan—812115113M. Tiutiunnyk—111061182
WJul 1 · 14:10D. Habrelyan—118118183M. Tiutiunnyk—711811162
LJun 18 · 17:10D. Habrelyan—11116872M. Tiutiunnyk—691111113
LJun 13 · 14:10D. Habrelyan—10111121M. Tiutiunnyk—12139113
LMar 29 · 10:30D. Habrelyan—1271141M. Tiutiunnyk—14118113
LMar 28 · 12:40D. Habrelyan—111131182M. Tiutiunnyk—591113113
WFeb 15 · 07:30D. Habrelyan—111111113M. Tiutiunnyk—813691
LFeb 14 · 18:10D. Habrelyan—11930M. Tiutiunnyk—1311113
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113
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