TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094543
Played Sep 8Finished
Yurii Volkov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311611911––––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeDaniil Habrelyan to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 51 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Daniil Habrelyan at 62.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 1–2 Daniil Habrelyan Yurii Volkov has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:27What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Habrelyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1651 vs Habrelyan 1551
Volkov
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 40% vs Habrelyan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 50% vs Habrelyan 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov -2 · Habrelyan -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Habrelyan) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 2.10 / Habrelyan 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Habrelyan)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13094543
Volkov2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 54 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back29% 16 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Habrelyan1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVolkov1wins
AwayHabrelyan2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHabrelyan leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkov33.3%1 of 3
AwayHabrelyann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov3Habrelyan0n = 3Volkov took 3 of 3
S2Volkov0Habrelyan3n = 3Habrelyan took 3 of 3
S3Volkov1Habrelyan2n = 3Habrelyan took 2 of 3
S4Volkov0Habrelyan3n = 3Habrelyan took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVolkovHabrelyanV − HBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match38.339.0−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 779 vs 191 / 40853.4%46.8%416 / 779 vs 191 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanVolkov 2.10/Habrelyan 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LApr 25 · 05:35Y. Volkov—119571D. Habrelyan—81111113
WApr 11 · 06:35Y. Volkov—1110116113D. Habrelyan—31231142
LAug 19 · 10:40Y. Volkov—1167101D. Habrelyan—91111123
Y. Volkov10
LSep 8 · 09:00Y. Volkov2.2511113692M. Tiutiunnyk1.57271111113LSep 8 · 06:00Y. Volkov2.0012101281Y. Holoborodko1.73141210113WSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:18Y. Volkov1.67811751I. Efimenko2.1011611113WSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113
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