TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093996
Played Sep 8Finished
Yurii Volkov
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
17151141412––––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeYurii Volkov to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 73 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Yurii Volkov at 67.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 41–20 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 20 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Volkov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-20 in 61
Volkov
Correct
gap of 21 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1668 vs Karpenko 1621
Volkov
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 60% vs Karpenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 40% vs Karpenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov -1 · Karpenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Volkov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 1.40 / Karpenko 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Volkov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13093996
Volkov1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 162 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it97% 82 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it85% 119 of 140
Karpenko2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 85 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolkov7wins
AwayKarpenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVolkov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkov75%6 of 8
AwayKarpenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov8Karpenko2n = 10Volkov took 8 of 10
S2Volkov6Karpenko4n = 10Volkov took 6 of 10
S3Volkov6Karpenko4n = 10Volkov took 6 of 10
S4Volkov4Karpenko2n = 6Volkov took 4 of 6
S5Volkov2Karpenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolkovKarpenkoV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.634.4+7.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 776 vs 355 / 68053.5%52.2%415 / 776 vs 355 / 680Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolkovVolkov 1.40/Karpenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Volkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Volkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov—91211872O. Karpenko—1110211113
WAug 25 · 04:30Y. Volkov—1211123O. Karpenko—105100
LAug 17 · 04:30Y. Volkov—119881O. Karpenko—61111113
WAug 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov—1111113O. Karpenko—8670
WAug 4 · 12:05Y. Volkov—1111113O. Karpenko—9550
LJul 27 · 12:05Y. Volkov—11971492O. Karpenko—4111112113
WJul 24 · 08:05Y. Volkov—1181411113O. Karpenko—81116942
WJul 21 · 10:35Y. Volkov—1111133O. Karpenko—95110
WJul 20 · 08:05Y. Volkov—81111133O. Karpenko—1185111
WJul 13 · 10:35Y. Volkov—118811113O. Karpenko—61111732
Y. Volkov10
LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:18Y. Volkov1.67811751I. Efimenko2.1011611113WSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912LSep 4 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.2011381192R. Sopivnyk1.61611114113LSep 4 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.6112811752A. Troyan2.201011811113LSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113
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